Economic recovery

Murray · May 10, 2020

Siusaidh said:
convince me that digitally re-booting everyone wouldn't vastly improve the situation and people's futures.

I don't think it would change too much

Economy needs consumerism

People need to feel secure in employment and their future earnings to start spending or taking out loans instead of saving

Money existing doesn't do much on it's own, it's like blood I guess, need that consumerism heart pumping to keep it flowing around so the economy is healthy

The travel/leisure industries are going to be very tricky to get back in full swing and when you think how much money is in them and how many people rely on them for jobs etc

keys · May 10, 2020

It is easy to compile a list of losers and casualties in this epidemic, and perhaps to position them on the scale of losses. In many ways this is similar to wartime conflict, but without conventional weapons and the physical destruction they in inflict.

Nations recover from war, and in this analogy we have a lot less to cope with. Our infrastructure, transport, welfare and government services are all functional. For some time we will endure fairly severe restrictions on travel and activities.

There must be new opportunities and grounds for optimism. It is a shame that our industrial heritage was binned in favour of financial services, making London centre of the universe. There is good reason to reduce dependence on imports, especially products essential for healthcare.

What else could we manufacture or grow, at competitive prices? Now that we are a free nation, government has the scope to provide commercial support for businesses. With due diligence, this could be part of the recovery plan.

JMI · May 10, 2020

This is just the beginning. .. give it a few months when all the ninjas start to default on card payments, if so that will trigger another credit crisis. The trillions being printed to prop up the stock markets is worrying for the medium to long term. They'll be an initial short term surge in consumer confidence as measures are relaxed and things appear on the surface to normalize due to all the QE, but the problem is the damage has already been done. Small business will find it very hard, most have been ruined for good. Many of the "furloughed" won't have jobs to return to as they'll be no business left to work at. The governments got itself in a right pickle with promising bailouts and whatever it takes etc (same with the US). I can't see any real progress with the economic recovery until 2021.

websaway · May 11, 2020

seemly said:
Agreed. Not sure why I bother with you.

Once again, you turn a thread sour. How very professional.

Given this some thought and perhaps I should apologise. I hate hurting peoples feelings and you did not deserve it. so, sorry.

websaway · May 11, 2020

So pleased that there is now a government directive to wear face covering in enclosed spaces but hope that this is only until the virus is defeated. What I am confused about is why is there so much emphasise on work places of the future. Surely when there is a vaccine for this virus we will revert mostly to our old ways of operating. Profit drives business and business relies on tried and tested methods of trading, why would there be any need for social distancing when there is no deadly virus to transmit to each other.

websaway · May 11, 2020

Trauiner said:
"Profit drives business" - That's why there is discussions of work places of the future.

A lot of companies have realised that their way of operating the business was outdated with the world we live in and and spending money on things that may not be needed. You have companies paying for large office spaces and realised due to this situation, that they may not even need such large offices. Their staff have been working from home.

Major potential cost-cutting and profit driving change.

Same with meetings. Most companies have had to survive on virtual meetings. Has made them question why they've been spending hours travelling, the cost of travelling, company cars etc when they could have always done it in a fraction of the time and for a fraction of the cost.

There will always be a need for offices and physical meetings but the idea that they are 'needed' has now changed and will change the workplace.

Yes makes sense.

websaway · May 12, 2020

Fascinating now to see the challenge the chancellor has got balancing safety and the economy.

newguy · May 12, 2020

websaway said:
Fascinating now to see the challenge the chancellor has got balancing safety and the economy.

It all looks a bit damned if you do, damned if you don't, in that the nature of the situation makes any option and outcome look pretty crap for the short and medium term at least!

websaway · May 13, 2020

newguy said:
It all looks a bit damned if you do, damned if you don't, in that the nature of the situation makes any option and outcome look pretty crap for the short and medium term at least!

Rock and a hard place springs to mind.
Nobody should gloat because if not hit directly or indirectly by the virus we will all be affected directly or indirectly by the economic fall out.

keys · May 13, 2020

Extension of furlough is bad news, as a reminder that the situation is still precarious and a darkening financial cloud. Now we have significant difference between rules across UK.

As a company with payroll, text of furlough announcement says we qualify, but according to our accountant wording of the legislation excludes us. Thus far HMRC not considering any discretion.

On the bright side, we can walk and cycle locally, enjoying summer weather and the best air quality for many decades.

diablo · May 13, 2020

Free webinar this morning: 11.00-11.30 that may be of interest to some.

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• What life after lockdown may be like
• How you can make sure you understand what matters most to your customers

https://www.tlfresearch.com/what-matters-most-to-customersnow/

newguy · May 13, 2020

keys said:
Extension of furlough is bad news, as a reminder that the situation is still precarious and a darkening financial cloud. Now we have significant difference between rules across UK.

As a company with payroll, text of furlough announcement says we qualify, but according to our accountant wording of the legislation excludes us. Thus far HMRC not considering any discretion.

On the bright side, we can walk and cycle locally, enjoying summer weather and the best air quality for many decades.

I must admit I was surprised by this. I can see sense to it in some cases, but there is possibly scope for it to be abused or overly relied on if it's available for that long. At the same time it's a tricky one for the government to try to balance. I wonder if they will now extend support for the self employed too. I also feel bad for those who for whatever reasons slip between the cracks and haven't been able to get the support they deserve and need.

martin-s · May 13, 2020

keys said:
As a company with payroll, text of furlough announcement says we qualify, but according to our accountant wording of the legislation excludes us. Thus far HMRC not considering any discretion.

Why do you believe you're excluded?

keys · May 13, 2020

martin-s said:
Why do you believe you're excluded?

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/claim-for-wage-costs-through-the-coronavirus-job-retention-scheme

Company directors with an annual pay period
Those paid annually are eligible to claim, as long as they meet the relevant conditions... irrespective of how frequently they are paid (e.g. weekly, fortnightly or monthly).

From our accountant,
I have mentioned throughout that there was some doubt as to whether "annual directors schemes" are eligible for payment.
Unfortunately the latest guidance form HMRC issued very late on on Friday 1st May takes the strict view of the legislation, which prohibits it, rather than allowing some flexibility.

donton · May 13, 2020

People saying the economy will bounce back have become a bit quieter. I still think we are in for a 30% contraction - possibly even 40% or more.

Everything is largely ok now because the furlough scheme is the rug.

Once the rug is pulled, it’s over. As someone else said, plenty of credit defaults on car loans and leases, credit cards and all the other junk you can buy on tick nowadays.

I simply cannot see the firms I know who have furloughed people taking those employees back after this is over.

What the government seem to think is that a tap will be turned and demand will come flooding back... not going to happen.

It’s going to take years to get back to pre-COVID levels of demand and economic activity. Another reason why lots of those people being furloughed will never be able to go back to the jobs they’ve been furloughed from.

I think the meltdown itself will claim a few big banks, and I think the depression will last a very long time. With talks of increased taxes already it’s hard to see how we get things going again.

newguy · May 13, 2020

donton said:
People saying the economy will bounce back have become a bit quieter. I still think we are in for a 30% contraction - possibly even 40% or more.

Everything is largely ok now because the furlough scheme is the rug.

Once the rug is pulled, it’s over. As someone else said, plenty of credit defaults on car loans and leases, credit cards and all the other junk you can buy on tick nowadays.

I simply cannot see the firms I know who have furloughed people taking those employees back after this is over.

What the government seem to think is that a tap will be turned and demand will come flooding back... not going to happen.

It’s going to take years to get back to pre-COVID levels of demand and economic activity. Another reason why lots of those people being furloughed will never be able to go back to the jobs they’ve been furloughed from.

I think the meltdown itself will claim a few big banks, and I think the depression will last a very long time. With talks of increased taxes already it’s hard to see how we get things going again.

There's certainly potentially bleak times ahead for a time. It does make me wonder if a second lockdown will ever happen, even if things get grim, because the economic cost and impact may take centre stage. It's going to be difficult enough to convince those aged 65+ to engage with the economy as it is, because many will understandably be keeping a low profile for the foreseeable.

websaway · May 14, 2020

We are all in a lifeboat,. there are various personallities in the boat.
Some believe in self preservation,others would actually sacrifice their own life to save others, some believe in hopelessness while others believe in hope and a possitive outcome. Someone relentlessly talks of why the Ship sank and who's fault it was and how it could have been avoided. All the time sitting quietly, a lawyer is listening to everyones views to prepare his case to sue whoever he can if ever he is fortunate enough to be delivered home by the others and good fortune.

WalkinDude · May 14, 2020

Its said that America the worlds biggest economy fears primarily ever having to fight two major wars on two fronts simultaneously. It's never happened and they don't even model war on 3 fronts.

UK faces Pandemic economic meltdown, Brexit, Trade Talks simultaneously. Now the worlds richest and profitable businesses want to stay afloat by setting up their staff at home. Effectively removing them from normal society. Removing them from the journey in, the journey home, the restaurants, cafes, bars, in-town high streets and retail parks. Their cars won't break down or need replacing as often cos when will they get used? They'll need less holidays cos well they won't be so stressed going into town will they? They won't need to wine and dine as much cos they got no kudos gain from doing so anymore. They won't need as many clothes, or shoes.

Now imagine in another realm there was a digital Corona Virus, right in Acorn. And all the best domainers, the most successful and knowledgeable domainers all disappeared into the Premium Lounge where they and their families were safe. Popping out now and again but only ever briefly, leaving the rest of us domainers in the normal threads with digital Corona all over the place and an acorn economy struggling for oxygen?

You put the rest, the majority, where they can have all the crap but none of the upward role models driving normal folk to greater personal aspiration that leads to growth.

Probably haven't explained that as eloquently as some could but that to me is the danger of Work from Home. Ramifications across the entire economy could mean UK ends up battling economically on 4 fronts simultaneously.

Yet what is known now is that Employees of the Banks, Tech firms, major firms, digital sme's have all said yaaaay to Working From Home and most if reports are to be believed wish to do so permanently and with that UK can kiss goodbye to the UK highstreet, possibly spectator sport, and quite a few other things. The medicine ends up killing the patient as you strangle off the last bastions of social mobility and trickle-down economics.