Economic recovery

[Siusaidh]

With talks of increased taxes already it’s hard to see how we get things going again.

Print more money.

Mobilise with Europe (and the US if they choose to) to award each state huge amounts of money to balance out recent borrowings, and also kick-start domestic economy by converting furlough-type spending into a final round of expenditure (paid for by part of the QE) to give each household £5000 (or more) to start spending.

Sure - arguments about inflation, but if EU and UK all did the same, then the big trade between them would be pretty much viable - and in answer to 'donton', it would be a way to "get things going again".

Beyond that, if necessary, renege on the loans from the huge Wealth Funds we've borrowed from, in tandem with other nations - and re-distribute money in the interests of the majority. But only as a late resort.

Redistribution of wealth is a political choice, as is not doing so. Laissez-faire neoliberalism is a system set up primarily to benefit those who have already, to protect their interests. It's not an inevitability. 'Commonweal' should be a moral imperative, and the absolute priorities coming out of this crisis should be: household viability and spending power, affordable housing mass construction programme, proper decent care of the elderly, expanded health resources, youth opportunity - and as a nurse working in the NHS I'm going to ask (but it can be generalised far wider):

Why is it right that nurses average pay is less than £30,000 (starting salary just over £25000) yet lawyers and accountants average over £60,000, and MPs over £80,000 (not to mention allowances)?

It's not just nurses, it's so many people. Everything's run for the 'professional' classes. Nurses are not really classified as professionals. Probably neither are some of you.

We need to get money channelled to ordinary families, rewarding effort not status, because if these millions of ordinary people have zero spending power, then we will accentuate recession/depression, and cause deeper social harm and the further hollowing out of our society. If we learn anything from this virus, it should be that 'community' really matters, and thinking of others, and caring for the most vulnerable. Working together in everyone's interests.

This isn't Marxism. It's believing in community and more fairness for everyone, and letting these decent ideals inform political choices.

Don't hold your breath, but don't just take glib political PR at face value, when people say it's not possible. Not easy, perhaps. But it's not automatic that we have to just take another 10 years of deep austerity, while the small minority protect or expand their status, wealth and power.

 

[websaway]

Oh siusaidh, lets keep the thread non political. If anyone gives their opinion on your politics it will take the lid off the can of worms which has been put to bed at the ballot box for the next few years at least. People have been trying to re model economics for centuries and now probably isn't the time to debate it. Lets all love each other care for each other and overcome the challenge by controlling the virus. This should be a road to damascus time to some degree for all of us

 

[khalid]

Covid has unearthed a plethora of problems that most folk didn’t appreciate the gravity of. My two cents in a very shortened way as I’m typing on my phone is that it needs to run its course now, we’re too far gone to stop it.

1. Response - too slow to contain or reel in, it’ll never stop spreading when there’s a lack of testing or ppe and folk are doing the conga on a Thursday night at 8pm. Supermarkets are social distancing outside but inside it’s a free for all.

We’re too polite and “British” to enforce a shutdown which has cost lives, example “only go out for food or medicine” yet The Range and B&Q are open and not a thing has been done about it.

2. Masks for public - not enough, not face fit tested, lack of hygiene understanding (touching masks then pressing the bell on the bus or re-using the same mask).

If you think that’s not the Government’s fault I’m one of many people who offered it to them (free and at cost). No less than 3 times I had the same email with 21 questions. I replied and heard nothing so ended up distributing it myself (www.wegotyou.uk)

3. Economy - we’re already in over a trillion £ of debt, it’s going to get worse. All these government payments are like giving someone credit card after credit card...it’ll need to be paid back with interest.

And it’s not done fairly. Most micro businesses (1-10 employees) don’t qualify for aid beyond furlough (which took 5 weeks) as they don’t have a premises with business rates.

To help without impacting our economy we could stop foreign aid, close tax loopholes, scrap trident. As much as I believe in helping businesses who create employment and investment in our country if you make money here you pay tax, end of.

To give you an idea the furlough scheme is costing £12-16bn a month according to a few articles, £15bn in grants and £10bn in help for the self employed.

Assume 2 months of furlough at £14bn and we’re totalling £63bn.

Foreign aid is estimated to be £14bn a year so 5 years of no help covers it.

Trident is £205bn, enough said.

I’m not politically motivated and figures may not be 100% accurate but you get my drift.

As for the NHS and pay - don’t do it if the pay is shit. And if you’re treated like shit (E.g no PPE) then strike. The government is abusing the placid nature of the people.

 

[khalid]

Again in short as I’m on my phone...

1. Processes and policies have cost lives. Sure check they’re CE marked etc but if you’re asking staff to work in such dangerous conditions and someone is offering you something for free take it, especially when you say there’s a shortage.

And that argument goes out the window when you’re sending out ppe that has expired use by dates on them.

Forget me as an individual. Primark were ignored. Barbour ended up donating direct.


2. What help? What is available aside from loans or industry specific grants like tourism? To my knowledge there’s nothing as simple as the £10,000 premises grant.


3. I don’t mind paying tax if we have a good community system. We already pay more tax in Scotland but have free education, free prescriptions and are talk about a basic income for all. I’m not saying it’s better but if it’s justified then so be it.

What I hate doing is paying tax when there are so many avoiding it or our beloved Government gets another pay rise.

 

[websaway]

200,000 cases daily in London at the end of March.
now down to 24 . Hope there is some accuracy in that research if there is then that's a sign for hope in the future though not for the past I accept.

 

[khalid]

1) So a good example would be safety glasses. I sent them to places who had none or not enough. They were bought in the UK from UK manufacturers with the appropriate markings/certificates.


Many places are currently accepting face shields made in people’s homes using 3d printers. Without sounding arrogant or rude I’d argue my solution was safer.


There’s countless deaths due to a lack of PPE it would be a pit hypocritical for the government to come after one person after they’ve failed so many. There’s also the Good Samaritan Act to consider.


2. Yes free, it’s unfair to offer free support to a selection of businesses without reasonable explanation.


3. Agreed. People moan about Richard Branson asking for a Government loan or living in a tax haven without considering how many people he employs, how much money his efforts have contributed to the economy etc.


They’re quick to crucify him and others when they’ve played a key role in advancing our economy, yet they still bank with the same institution the government bailed out not so long ago.


—-


I’m probably more direct with my thoughts and ideas but that’s because I feel all we do is moan and complain and do “policy reviews” or “independent inquiries”. There’s no accountability which is why even a response to a virus we saw coming from a mile away was disaster. There will be a scapegoat here and there, oh and don’t forget a £60,000 payment if your dead.

 

[MikeJDS]

I think you're correct.

House prices are heavily linked to interest rates: both in terms of how much people can pay (borrow) and where money ends up when interest rates are kept artificially low (as they have been for two decades now). This has created today's housing bubble.

Given the massive amount of money injected into the economy this year, it is only a matter of time before interest rates rise and this and other bubbles burst.

A rise in interest rates will also spell the end of zombie businesses that have kept going on cheap money. This economic hit will affect jobs and also house prices.

Covid19 is the perfect fall guy, covering up decades of government(s) mismanagement of the economy.

I agree that London will very likely see the biggest crash in the property market, but not for that reason.
The shift is going to come from many more employees having to adapt to working from home & it seems very likely that trend will be a permanant arrangement for many companies going forward in the months/years ahead. There will be too many barriers to commute safely & big savings to be seen in getting rid of property leases.
A lot of people will continue to work from home & look at moving away from cities in general. So, property values elsewhere may not see such large drops in value, at least mid-term I think.

The Government is printing money on a massive scale (QE). with Business Grants & on an even larger scale Business Loans (bounce back loan scheme) which are open to practically any man & his dog who wants it.
The main aim here is to ensure that the cash goes directly as possible to businesses this time instead of the Banks hoarding it as they did following 2008.
These are in effect just grants as far as budgeting goes for the Government with the added bonus of at least having some return in the future (many of course will not get paid back).

In the months ahead when we plummet into recession. A BIG Recession!!
A big part of the challenge will be to get businesses to Spend as much of that cash as possible and get it moving through the economy as quickly as possible, in the hope of a sharp bounce back.
So, the answer to that could well be Negative Interest Rates IMO.
It would make perfect sense for the BOE to take this strategy as it would discourage too many businesses from hoarding the cash (if they do, they will of course then be charged for it).

I could well be wrong, but I think there would at least be some sense to this approach, so wouldn't be too surprised if we see this happen.
I guess we will find out..

 

[websaway]

It's time for everybody to get back to work wearing masks. Come on now, the economic fall out has to be taken more seriously than the danger of young healthy people wearing masks dying of the virus. I think social distancing should be left to common sense if people are by law required to wear masks in confined spaces. Queuing outside shops in the future is ludicrous so time to wear masks and get back to work.

 

[websaway]

There will never be a law for people in the UK to wear masks. We can't currently even meet the demand for keyworkers to have enough masks, let alone most of the UK public needing them.

People underestimate how many masks would be needed. It's not one mask per person.

Are you serious, If supply was the problem there would be no problem. It's the desire to do it that is missing. I can see everyone's point of view but this economic meltdown is simply not a solution.

 

[Admin]

Masks are compulsory here in Andorra and in Spain. It's the norm. Although I think people who drive solo and wear them are daft, its like wearing a condom and not having sex.

 

[martin-s]

Masks are compulsory here in Andorra and in Spain. It's the norm. Although I think people who drive solo and wear them are daft, its like wearing a condom and not having sex.

Try it Steve. You don't know what you're missing

 

[Admin]

Try it Steve. You don't know what you're missing

Shrink wrapping.... I'll pass

 

[newguy]

'Major reallocation shock' from coronavirus will see 42% of lost jobs evaporate - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/majo...-see-42-of-lost-jobs-evaporate-172558520.html

 

[Murray]

Hertz have filed for bankrupty

Didn't take much time did it

 

[newguy]

Hertz have filed for bankrupty

Didn't take much time did it

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-shearings-collapses-with-loss-of-2500-jobs-11992922 Shearings the other day too. They specialise in group OAP trips and hotel stays, so that will have a knock on effect on hotels.

It's a weird time because it's reasonable to think that things will get much worse for companies before they get better, and that while feasibly things covid-19 might be a thing of the past in a year or so (or at least not terrifying the elderly and vulnerable), so many companies will be unable to hang on for that to come about. It won't look pretty when the furlough scheme ends. So many people will be let go.

 

[websaway]

So if we really care about others, lets all wear face covering in places where we can't social distance.

Common sense prevails

 

[Siusaidh]

I think the best policy at present is continued social distancing *and* wear facemasks in temporary situations where you might be close to people (such as if you *have* to take a journey on public transport, or in supermarket aisles).

The facemasks policy will need to allow home-made facemasks which may reduce danger to others if you sneeze/cough, but will not prevent you catching the virus. The simple fact is there are nowhere near enough medical grade facemasks to provide everyone with daily masks. So facemasks are a *part* of an approach to try to avoid further spread, but by themselves they may not be enough.

We are not yet 3 weeks out of the gradual escape from lockdown. So we need to see whether deaths start rising again when the new cycle begins. Further relaxation of the lockdown may then need to be measured (again, from 3 weeks later).

Let's hope, even with localised blips, that we can keep the outbreak under control.

I can assure you there are still many people catching this virus and suffering serious symptoms. I'm encouraged but it's not over yet.

The other serious concern I have, as a clinician, is the near collapse of services for people with (for example) moderate cardiac problems or need for operations. The backlog is huge and no-one can deny that there are going to be significant numbers of deaths from this reduction in services.

Part of the tail of this virus is going to be both the economic impacts on health (and the morbidities of poverty), and this trail of people who needed medical monitoring and interventions which were postponed and delayed.

The situation is undeniably complex, but what I know first-hand is that people are still teetering on the brink of life and death with this virus, and they have to be helped, and because of all the other consequences of this virus (which I just mentioned) what we mustn't do is let this virus run away again.

Any kind of gung-ho and macho approach to this virus will only end up exacerbating the problems (hello Brazil). I think it needs to be patient, calm, slow and steady. getting 'R' down to, say, 0.2 would make it far easier to contain outbreaks and track and trace. At that point, yes, we start to win and get back to some kind of new normal. At present the public is pushing the limits: if people think we're out of the woods and can all just mix again, I fear they are wrong.

 

[websaway]

We could produce ammunition gas masks planes and tanks in the war. We could not manufacture masks to stop person to person transmission of the virus. We had all the " expert" opinions as to why we should not wear masks even though common sense told us if a mask reduced giving someone else the virus it must by definition reduce the risk of someone catching the virus by a mask wearer. And what about the economy, I don't think ordinary joe who has only been on the planer for the last 35 years or less really grasps the economic downside of this episode and the human cost to come.

 

[Siusaidh]

I agree with you that it would have been better to get people wearing facemasks sooner. It would have saved some lives.

I suppose the counter argument that could be presented is that it would have given people a false sense of security, and as a result they might have been more relaxed about social distancing.

The sort of facemasks most of the public will have access to (or can improvise) are not some kind of ray gun safety shield. The thin paper masks you often see people wearing are better than nothing, because if they sneeze fewer droplets will infect other people, but as a protection they reduce but do not remove the risk of catching the virus.

Let's hope people are sensible about wearing facemasks if they do so now, and still try to keep their distance.

I agree about the human cost to come.

 

[websaway]

Terrible to see thousands packed shoulder to shoulder in parliament square today, they risk bringing the virus back to their grandparents. How irresponsible . Also risk a further lockdown, clearly only a cause matters not really lives.