Economic recovery

[WalkinDude]

My partner usually works from an office with about 20 colleagues.

They now realise they can do it all from home.

I wonder what price office space in the coming year?

The rate at which a company advances in a localized setting i.e their own offices vs each employee working at home is something I'd like to see.

Working together is daily skill sharing, idea sharing, mini task swaps, off the record communication, all equipment is located in one place cutting maintenance costs, ditto training, better security, monitoring of staff, crisis management, and possibly biggest motivator loyalty that comes from liking spending your working day with your colleagues. Face to face interaction is good for physical and mental health. Now you swap that for everything all day must come through the screen.

Theoretically, footballers could work from home except on matchday. It's not difficult to imagine which team would win come Sat. The one that trains together or the team of individuals training from home.

I really hope the days of forcing people into sardine tins on the tube, buses, in cramp offices, etc are over, but to go to the other extreme end of everyone working from home will, of course, lead to Amazon having a market cap of say 10trillion dollars but won't do much for Western Economic battles with its global rival regions.

I'm very disappointed even MP's are joining in on this idea. For economic pandemic survival yes work from home is a necessity but for long term economic power your are not gonna get around the fact humans need to be together and wherever possible a change of environment and faces brings out the best in us.

Seems there is a chorus of well put together people who will flourish working from home. Highly educated, no doubt lovely childhoods and capable of structuring their workfromhome environment on par with standards you'd expect in an office.

Yet a far greater number of households struggle to make ends meet [don't mean they are poor, even middle-class incomes experience this and are shopping at Aldi etc, tightening the belts], and to take away their ability to get away from other members of the household for 10hrs a day, be inspired by their colleagues in well everything including behavioral norms is a very bad idea imho.

 

[keys]

Post-corona isn't going to be pretty.

I suppose beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Some aspects of previously normal life were overdue for correction. Post corona will be very different, and I believe there is scope for positive change when we are finally released from the chains and distraction of Brexit.

 

[Siusaidh]

I agree with most of what you say, WalkinDude. It's why I don't do Facebook friends. I need the physical interaction, the body language, the sense of gatheredness. I think this lockdown has made a lot of people realise what they didn't know they'd miss. My partner works in IT and can work remotely. Still misses the company. I wasn't advocating mass home working, just flagging it up as something I think may happen more, now it's been experienced on such a widespread level.

 

[websaway]

Strikes me that we should get back to some sort of normality by people wearing high quality masks rather than reduce transport capacity by 90%. If everybody was required to wear high quality face covering before boarding public transport it could virtually operate at normal capacity. If you are vulnerable don't travel, if you have vulnerable relatives, don't travel, otherwise travel and take a greatly reduced risk of catching the virus.

 

[newguy]

Strikes me that we should get back to some sort of normality by people wearing high quality masks rather than reduce transport capacity by 90%. If everybody was required to wear high quality face covering before boarding public transport it could virtually operate at normal capacity. If you are vulnerable don't travel, if you have vulnerable relatives, don't travel, otherwise travel and take a greatly reduced risk of catching the virus.

Yes, the messaging on masks from the government is all over the place, and unfortunately I don't think that's due to how effective they are, but more a concern that it will take PPE away from those in the NHS. They should ramp up production as a priority and start getting us beyond this cultural aversion to them. If you look at Hong Kong (I trust their numbers more than China) they've had days of no new cases. Granted there may be other factors, as with South Korea, but it definitely makes a difference. If we're serious about keeping the r0 rate low and getting back to a semblance of normality before long, we should follow their lead.

 

[keys]

I think there are other considerations.

No compulsory mask wearing, instead social distancing is very clear to understand, and keeps everyone aware of the risk. As apposed to, wear a mask and you will be safe - then we get back to crowded city buses, tubes and stations etc.

Public consumption of masks would deplete supplies. There would be a need for strict enforcement, another potential source of conflict.

family 'murdered shop guard for enforcing mask policy'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52540266

Encouraging people to walk or cycle for shorter journeys is a good idea. Improved cycle routes will help, extended pedestrian areas should be a benefit to towns and cities. Some inconvenience and upheaval of lockdown can bring positive change.

 

[newguy]

I think there are other considerations.

No compulsory mask wearing, instead social distancing is very clear to understand, and keeps everyone aware of the risk. As apposed to, wear a mask and you will be safe - then we get back to crowded city buses, tubes and stations etc.

Public consumption of masks would deplete supplies. There would be a need for strict enforcement, another potential source of conflict.

family 'murdered shop guard for enforcing mask policy'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52540266

Encouraging people to walk or cycle for shorter journeys is a good idea. Improved cycle routes will help, extended pedestrian areas should be a benefit to towns and cities. Some inconvenience and upheaval of lockdown can bring positive change.

I agree with you on the depletion point. We would need to ramp up production. I don't personally think that telling people to wear a mask and also to maintain a level of social distancing is a confusing message though. As things open up, it's unfortunately inevitable that adherence to social distancing will gradually decrease. People will 'forget' about the risk or view it as someone else's problem. If we're all wearing masks, we have an ongoing awareness and reminder that it's a puzzle that we all play a role in solving. They got this in Hong Kong very early on, and it's a mindset that has likely saved many lives. A guy being murdered for telling people to wear masks is tragic, but those committing this act were clearly mindless and violent. Such rare events should not dissuade us from making a decision that is wise.

I'm with you on the cycling and walking point. It's great for the environment and also financially. In future I think so many more of us will be working from home, and those that can't cycling to work where possible. Improved cycle routes would give us more awareness of nature, our surroundings and improving fitness levels!

 

[websaway]

I think there are other considerations.

No compulsory mask wearing, instead social distancing is very clear to understand, and keeps everyone aware of the risk. As apposed to, wear a mask and you will be safe - then we get back to crowded city buses, tubes and stations etc.

Public consumption of masks would deplete supplies. There would be a need for strict enforcement, another potential source of conflict.

family 'murdered shop guard for enforcing mask policy'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52540266

Encouraging people to walk or cycle for shorter journeys is a good idea. Improved cycle routes will help, extended pedestrian areas should be a benefit to towns and cities. Some inconvenience and upheaval of lockdown can bring positive change.

Social distancing is clear to understand. Have you been out lately ? have you been to a shop, I can't wait to see how people file on and off a bus in single file in case you get close to anyone else. Millions of people have to get to places on public transport. We can build cycle lanes and spend £2 billion pounds on getting people to cycle and walk ( walk, that's novel, surprised nobody has ever done that before).Oh and by the time we get everyone cycling and nobody can get to and from where they want to be, we will have a vaccine . If everyone wears a mask then nobody will get the virus, and if we can build hospitals in days surely we can mass produce a quality mask if everyone has the will and the government gives £2 billion for the process.

 

[WalkinDude]

Social mobility has many factors but 2 I'd like to focus on are access to opportunity and access to opportunists where opportunists means success people.

Mean Gov investment in services is down by like 40% in real terms and I'm sure most have read the reports about the effect this has on social mobility. But access to opportunists is also key. Every day in normal times ordinary people via work, travel, sport, etc are in close proximity to lifes winners. We get to see how they work, dress, talk, behave. Gain insights into how they think. If we are lucky we get to work directly with them. How the success came to be so is often not of interest to us. Decent, frugal, committed parenting would be my best guess not just inheritance or other factors. Most of us work for them or service their houses and cars etc. Through this proximity and the simple fact, humans mimic each other; normal people get a view of what paths to success look like if they are interested enough.

You're not gonna get that if all these people start working from home in their lovely villages, and walled off duplexes complete with in-house gyms and so on. You'll end up with Elysium via the back door.

Further, our brightest and best inspire the economy cos everyone wants to be like them. We know they are real cos we can see them every day. That's not gonna work if they are all at home in their jammies earning millions off their computers, is it?

The assumption that the new economy can just shift into this utopian corona safe edifice just puzzles me. Is it the suggestion humans didn't know until Corona came along that they don't like traffic jams, they don't like half their colleagues, they'd prefer to be at home with their kids and their neighbours? We didn't know this before???? I think we knew all this before and chose what is viable forsaking what we wanted. I think we always go for the most frugal option, and those massive skyscrapers, mammoth machines of money-making are frugal, downtown is frugal, the Tube is frugal, highstreets, cafes, bars.

The no-one leaves their own postcode unless they are going on holiday model was rejected by humans over the hmmm let us say last 100,000 years of human evolution. Slow thus costly, and boring with wars breaking out every 5 mins.

In Art and Sciences, the futurists always display the future as massive human proximity, huge social-economic architectures and this is for good reason cos that's the huge GDP light speed economy. They don't describe the future as a collection of Hobbit type villages where everyone works from home cos that's the stagnant shrinking economy.

Everything we do is about cutting down the time [cost] it takes to do things. It's literally all we care about cos we all know we are not going to live forever. Sole reasons why Cities even exist because they are fast in Time. A skyscraper is the same principle, a city within a city, fast, time is minimized in all things within the building. In an office surrounded by your equally talented colleagues, it's difficult to wallow in self-pity and loathing, you are forced to get on with it each and every day and that's good for us.

The work from home economy could work if say there were about 10x as much energy available to us as we have access to now. Car batteries lasted 2000 miles a charge etc. Robots were as abundant as vacuum cleaners. But we are nowhere near that. It's unknown if we will even get there cos of the stored mobile energy problem.

I digress. Social proximity is fundamental to social mobility. We tinker with that at our peril in the initial sense of those who need it most, then everyone else. We say as capitalists, the successful can keep their gains, they can live plush, but we want to know and see and be around how they do it.

 

[dee]

I suppose beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Some aspects of previously normal life were overdue for correction. Post corona will be very different, and I believe there is scope for positive change when we are finally released from the chains and distraction of Brexit.

Man.... just reading this made me realise I havent thought about what used to be the all encompassing brexit in weeks.

 

[Siusaidh]

High quality masks have to be very well fitted, otherwise they're not high quality.

Low quality masks offer only a chance of keeping out the virus, not a guarantee, though they may reduce the risks a little. They may also reduce the risk to others if you sneeze or cough.

However, what you touch is always going to be the invisible risk, unless hand washing is regular and thorough, and then you need to wash your hands before you touch your face. Germs may also linger on your clothing. Are you going to sit down on a train? You won't be the first to sit there, or to use the handrail.

So we need to be clear that until the actual infection rate is reduced sufficiently, this virus is going to be out there in the community. People will have to do the best they can, if they are required to travel to work.

I am not trying to be alarmist. I just wouldn't want anyone to think that a high-quality mask will make them invincible. It will help though, if you know how to fit it.

 

[newguy]

High quality masks have to be very well fitted, otherwise they're not high quality.

Low quality masks offer only a chance of keeping out the virus, not a guarantee, though they may reduce the risks a little. They may also reduce the risk to others if you sneeze or cough.

However, what you touch is always going to be the invisible risk, unless hand washing is regular and thorough, and then you need to wash your hands before you touch your face. Germs may also linger on your clothing. Are you going to sit down on a train? You won't be the first to sit there, or to use the handrail.

So we need to be clear that until the actual infection rate is reduced sufficiently, this virus is going to be out there in the community. People will have to do the best they can, if they are required to travel to work.

I am not trying to be alarmist. I just wouldn't want anyone to think that a high-quality mask will make them invincible. It will help though, if you know how to fit it.

Yes, a good point about hand washing. We can certainly reduce risk, but you're right that we still won't be risk free. If we can keep the r0 rate down though, combined with new treatment protocols that could eventually emerge, we may start to see brighter days ahead.

I do think more focus should've been on protecting the elderly in care homes though, because ironically they've been some of the only people unable to socially distance. The latest government stats show that covid-19 has been present in over 30% of care homes. A very troubling finding, though I guess since so little has been done it will eventually work its way through them all before long, and whoever sees it out,then likely have a level of immunity. A rather grim scene though.

 

[websaway]

People get killed in car crashes even though they wear seat belts. I never hear anyone trying to discourage the wearing of seat belts because they are not 100% safe or because they give a false sense of security. My point is if everyone wears a quality mask it will help to reduce the transfer of the virus and get the economy back to a degree of normality.

 

[keys]

In a dictatorship, new policies are announced and the population is forced to comply. The party is never wrong, and if they appear to be wrong, then others must be to blame. In simplistic terms, that is the root of our current crisis.

Our system of government, is more open and subject to media influence. Sometimes, vocal minorities can disrupt or demand selfish changes, but mostly we rely on common consent and majority opinion.

There will always be an extreme interpretation to argue against change. You can strive for absolute return to normal, but many other people will adopt different behaviour.

Less driving, more walking, more cycling, different working times and much more. Individual choice remains, but there is scope for a better environment and collectively better health.

 

[martin-s]

High quality masks have to be very well fitted, otherwise they're not high quality.

The end of the beard is nigh

 

[Murray]

@websaway some day I hope to meet someone I love as much as you love masks

 

[Murray]

Maybe staggering the lockdown by ages is the way to go

The data shows under 40s aren't adversely effected on the whole, let them go back to work where they can

40-50 next

By the time we get to 65+ hopefully there will be some reliable antibody tests where we can say that large outbreaks are no longer possible

The world runs on debt and spending, there's going to be a massive recession, it all sounds nice a return to simpler times when we all live within our means, grow our own vegetables, cycle etc but that's very naive, that's nice when it's a choice but not when you can't afford food or a car

 

[Siusaidh]

Observation: many nations including our own have had to borrow huge sums of money, which will have grave consequences for funding of health, education, social care, local government services for maybe years to come.

Question: who lent the money?

I have a follow up question, but first I'd like people's answers to that.

 

[dee]

Observation: many nations including our own have had to borrow huge sums of money, which will have grave consequences for funding of health, education, social care, local government services for maybe years to come.

Question: who lent the money?

I have a follow up question, but first I'd like people's answers to that.

Like quantative easing I suspect it will just automagically appear.

 

[dee]

EVERYBODY needs to take responsibility for themselves and recognise their failings, accept them, change their mindset and lifestyle, and be considerate to others. Otherwise we've learned nothing and we won't move forward.

This .

Unfortunately just going to Tesco's to buy food turns into a Darwin award festival. I've come to the conclusion that actually...most people are just selfish twats. Apparently the advice is for everyone else.