UK Leaves the EU - What happens next?

[spiderspider]

Anyone hear Andrea Leadsom on R4 world at one today?

Well worth a listen to the whole programme, but if you skip to 40 minutes (ish) in, is when Andrea is on.

At 41.30 Andrea kicks off. If you ever wondered if the BBC could choose better guests, or are biased:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07h2vc6#play

 

[Edwin]

BBC News and BBC Parliament are covering the first post referendum debate now - very feisty, to put it mildly!

 

[cannybagotudor]

It is quite possible the government will pile on the recession themselves making a vote in November to ignore the referendum more acceptable. The Bank of England could have bolstered sterling today, they didn't. I think if the EU had any sense at all they'd reform their immigration policies quickly, I don't see it happening because that involves commonsense which is sorely lacking in politics.The MP's would of course be scapegoats for a higher power at work, SNP MP's will vote remain as will N.I MP's, I don't look at seat numbers but you can see how this could unfold.

 

[looks]

It is quite possible the government will pile on the recession themselves making a vote in November to ignore the referendum more acceptable. The Bank of England could have bolstered sterling today, they didn't. I think if the EU had any sense at all they'd reform their immigration policies quickly, I don't see it happening because that involves commonsense which is sorely lacking in politics.The MP's would of course be scapegoats for a higher power at work, SNP MP's will vote remain as will N.I MP's, I don't look at seat numbers but you can see how this could unfold.

I agree, reform is the best outcome for all. I just think the EU is to pig headed to accept it. Free movement is a great thing but it should be controlled. Other than that i dont really have any problems with the EU, dont really care how much money we send them if its is used to better peoples lives in more poor countries.

 

[BREWSTERS]

On the issue of the sinking ship cartoon ...

For me this is a difficult one. Some people will see more in it than others, and for them with good reason.
Does that mean we should ban these cartoons ... the issue then is in free speech.
But, should we also not be able to respect the fact that some people will be offended?
What's the answer? I don't honestly know. I believe in free speech, but I abhor bigotry and racism.

The reason that this is difficult for me is that I grew up with bigotry.
My parents were French, I was born in the UK, and had a French accent till my mid teens.
I was constantly bullied at school and my nickname was Frog.

Then there was that stupid phrase "French surrender monkeys" ... Very funny for many people, not for our family.

My father was one of the troops that was set up to defend the evacuations at Dunkirk.
He was captured and sent to a prisoner of war camp in Germany.
He escaped, made his way back to France and joined the Maquis (French resistance), and fought from the mountains of the Auvergne.
He lost many friends, family, and his first wife believing he was dead started a relationship with another man.

Okay, not strictly relevant, but this is part of my history which explains why I get upset when I see what I regard as trite comments about the French and the last war (which thankfully haven't been any).

Many people will find that cartoon offensive. We cannot just dismiss them. It's all part of understanding other people's point of view, which is surely what a grown up democracy and people should be doing ...

What an interesting story, there's a book in there.

As far as humour is concerned, there is often the chance that people could be offended, but I subscribe to the Steve Hughes train of thought...due to a disabled family member I sometimes get offended by certain jokes, but I wouldn't stop anyone from saying them.

 

[VSC]

What an interesting story, there's a book in there.

While in the Maquis, he became friends with a French artiso. In the mid 1950's, the French aristo was to marry an English aristo, and he asked my father (who was a chef) to come over with him so he could get some decent food. He did, which is how "we" came over. In later years my father worked up the chef ladder and became head chef at the Royal Garden Hotel (I have a photo of him in front of the celebration football cake that went on every table for the England football team after the World Cup victory in 1966).

Anyway, after years of hating everything German, he became best friends with a German chef he met there! Then he bought a Mercedes!

He taught me that eventually you have to forgive and move on.

 

[websaway]

I think it's quite unlikely that UKIP could go from 1 MP to a majority.

What interests me is how people feel about having voted for Brexit on the basis of promises that have now been shown to be lies

Yes but you thought the IN campaign would win. You don't really know anything until a dead horse kicks you.

 

[martin-s]

There has been so much talk of a second referendum, not activating article 50, and MPs rejecting Brexit in a vote.

If the UK is to remain a democratic nation, the referendum must stand, like it or not.

The only credible route to a second referendum would be if the EU folded and a more palatable negotiated agreement put forward. Something that materially changed the question being asked.

And yes, I agree that Scotland have a point in that regard.

The hilarious thing is that if the EU acted quickly, given the level of voter's remorse being shown currently, it wouldn't actually take much movement to tip a second referendum in favour of remain and secure the future of the EU forever.

I don't see it though. I don't think the EU bigwigs are capable of rowing back on ever-closer union, or freedom of movement (not just freedom of work, for instance).

It's a shame, because many of us would have voted to stay in, given a less federal vision of the future.

 

[Admin]

@websaway ...you are picking up warning points faster than Irish passport applications. Please stop commenting on that line and keep on thread topic.

 

[VSC]

So, where are we ...

It is much too soon to really make a judgement call, but ...

PROs
Exports are now more competitive for British businesses.
The EU seem more conciliatory than they appeared before last Thursday.
The US seems more conciliatory etc.
Personal view - Corbyn might go.
Personal view - Though not a Conservative voter, I have more respect for David Cameron.
Personal view - UK politics are being shaken up.

CONs
Imports are more expensive which means over the next few months some prices going up.
As oil is bought in $s, fuel is going up in price.
Some businesses whose trade is primarily based in the EU but based in the UK while not saying they will leave the UK, are preparing to move some staff out of the UK.

I have purposely not mentioned economists/forecasters and what some believe what may happen, just focused on what we know as being factual.

What have I missed - factual only.

 

[cannybagotudor]

martin-s I agree completely, if the EU gave more control to ALL EU members for their borders, a major issue would be resolved. I don't see but it is the most straightforward and easiest solution. They is talk of going into the single market, which resolves nothing because it allows free movement, which is the core reason why leave won.

 

[grandwizard]

Reality has hit Home. The leave campaign are panicking oops Lets not pull the trigger we need time to plan. It is easy for any politician to just say "we can cut our own trade deals " "we can hover over uncertainty like magical beings " "we built the British empire we can do so economically" okay I can be a millionaire Let there be millions saying things is great but making things happen is another. The process of repealing EU laws from the books is in itself a nightmare and any constitutional lawyer with a brain will concur this will take longer than 2 years unless superman himself is summoned to whisk through the 40,000 European legal acts. As for immigration Looks like the leave campaign are only interested in the symbolic retreat from Europe basically we will have some form of control but the numbers will remain the same? hmmmmm.. wait a minute! I heard Boris meoowing about the numbers I was sure he said tens of thousands
Leave supporters have been fooled. Can any of you tell me how we get immigration to the tens of thousands?

 

[Edwin]

If you're not watching the debate, there have been half a dozen references to the fact that Boris Johnson didn't even bother/dare to show up.

 

[Edwin]

Probably a good idea to fill your tank up with petrol ASAP
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36641090

 

[VSC]

The process of repealing EU laws from the books is in itself a nightmare and any constitutional lawyer with a brain will concur this will take longer than 2 years unless superman himself is summoned to whisk through the 40,000 European legal acts.

As I think I understand it (?!) the process of going through the EU legislation can wait till after we have left. Most of it should stay the same as the UK was on the "winning" side of votes for most of them.

That is my biggest fear ... that the next government will dismantle some of the positives that being in the EU gave us in the form of legislation. Hopefully we will not go in to recession, but if we did, the economy would be the ideal excuse to repeal worker protections, health and safety legislation etc etc.

 

[VSC]

PROs - London house prices going down.

CONs - Because the Euro can buy more £'s, foreign buyers looking for bargains ...

http://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/61987/will-house-prices-rise-in-a-brexit-bubble

 

[bonusmedia]

I think I do.

Do you understand the difference between being part of a single market & having access to a single market?

China has access to the EU single market. It does not pay in. It does not allow free movement of labour. It is not part of the single market.

Come now Gimpy, you're being facetious. On that logic just about everyone has 'access' to every market

Access to the single market is commonly understood to mean receiving the benefits of the single market.
For example:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-johnson-pipe-dream-over-single-market-access
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36640008

There's not much point having access to a special discount club but without the special discounts, is there?

To get back to the point - leaders of the Brexit camp, such as Johnson, want to retain tariff-free, quota-free access to the single market - i.e. retain the current benefits. That is only possible by paying into the system and retaining free movement of labour - such as the Norwegian model.

 

[bonusmedia]

Yes but you thought the IN campaign would win. You don't really know anything until a dead horse kicks you.

I did - but I was only 4% out Bit of a difference between that and UKIP winning a majority in a general election!

(If UKIP do win a majority in a general election they won't have to worry about immigration, there will be a mass exodus)

 

[gimpydog]

What have I missed - factual only.

"British government borrowing costs fell below 1 per cent for the first time in history on Monday"
https://next.ft.com/content/6286ad2a-3c3e-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0​

 

[VSC]

"British government borrowing costs fell below 1 per cent for the first time in history on Monday"
https://next.ft.com/content/6286ad2a-3c3e-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0

and from the same article, the CONs:

Heightened stress also sent the UK currency to another 30-year low under $1.32, while sharp falls in stock markets led RBS and Barclays to briefly suspend trading in shares.