Is Bitcoin the Next Big Thing?

[Edwin]

A huge amount to chew through, but some eye-opening stuff here...
https://hackernoon.com/a-brief-history-of-bitcon-cf358da30bf0

 

[Edwin]

Fun fact of the day: the guy behind the collapse of Mt Gox made hundreds of millions of dollars from it, even after his restitution deal and the bankruptcy of the company...
https://www.ccn.com/mark-karpeles-will-end-taking-859-million-mt-gox-bankruptcy/

(His holding is now worth close to 2 billion dollars.)

Whoever said crime doesn’t pay?

 

[bonusmedia]

Fun fact of the day: the guy behind the collapse of Mt Gox made hundreds of millions of dollars from it, even after his restitution deal and the bankruptcy of the company...
https://www.ccn.com/mark-karpeles-will-end-taking-859-million-mt-gox-bankruptcy/

(His holding is now worth close to 2 billion dollars.)

Whoever said crime doesn’t pay?

The problem with ripping off the underworld is that you end up horribly horribly dead. He has to hope it all crashes and burns or he will be looking over his shoulder the rest of his life. He probably will anyway.

I'm opening a bottle and trying to grow the cojones to short BTC

 

[Edwin]

Fun fact #2: just 8 wallets hold over $1.75 billion worth of Tether...
https://wallet.tether.to/richlist

 

[bonusmedia]

Yeah Tether is 100% grade A bullshit - but how long can the market stay irrational

 

[Edwin]

The problem with ripping off the underworld is that you end up horribly horribly dead. He has to hope it all crashes and burns or he will be looking over his shoulder the rest of his life. He probably will anyway.

I'm opening a bottle and trying to grow the cojones to short BTC

$2 billion will literally buy you a private army. But you’re probably still right.

 

[Edwin]

Yeah Tether is 100% grade A bullshit - but how long can the market stay irrational

Presumably so long as Tether doesn’t get exposed. That looooooong article I posted a link to makes it clear that the influence of Tether has spread like cancer all over crypto...

 

[bonusmedia]

So the bitfinex guy is a fraudster with form and he's running the largest exchange, and we wouldn't even know they were behind Tether if it wasn't for the Paradise Papers.
You almost have to admire the audacity.

If this was a poker game, I'd be calling the bluff. So once I can get a CFD account open and confirm/back up some of these facts, I'm shorting BTC.
I might stick the Big Short on in the background

All this time I've thought 'I don't understand it so I won't touch it'. I think I get it now

 

[Edwin]

I guess the snag with shorting it is the margin calls if the scammers manage to keep right on pumping for ages.

Best of British luck with it!

 

[bonusmedia]

I'm ok with margin calls. No-one seems willing to let me keep a trade open longer than 15 days though.
Thanks for your posts Edwin, they have been very helpful pointers.
I hereby exonerate you from any bad feeling when I lose the lot

 

[Edwin]

Thanks for your posts Edwin, they have been very helpful pointers.
I hereby exonerate you from any bad feeling when I lose the lot

No probs, thanks for the kind words.

General question, which may be easy or impossible to answer: is there a disparity in the size of trades that push BTC up vs those that drop it down?

In other words, since (I think) the volume of each trade is not weighted into the index price but instead they’re quoting the last traded price, is the following fictional example possible?

Index price of BTC is 1,000
Buy trade executed for 1 BTC at 1,001. Index price now 1,001.
Sell trade executed for 10 BTC at 1,000. Index price now 1,000.
Buy trade executed for 1 BTC at 1,001. Index price now 1,001.
Sell trade executed for 10 BTC at 1,000. Index price now 1,000.
etc

If the above is possible, then the index price doesn’t reflect the underlying story...

 

[bonusmedia]

That's quite possible on the stock markets, although the market makers would generally take that volume into account.

I can't imagine it's any different in these markets except there aren't really any market makers, there isn't any scrutiny, and fraudsters can do what they like

 

[bonusmedia]

.

 

[martin-s]

If the above is possible, then the index price doesn’t reflect the underlying story...

I imagine it'd work more like Betfair. Eg. you set the price by posting offers to sell and the best price across the market is the current buy price.

 

[dee]

I'm ok with margin calls. No-one seems willing to let me keep a trade open longer than 15 days though.
Thanks for your posts Edwin, they have been very helpful pointers.
I hereby exonerate you from any bad feeling when I lose the lot

etoro have cfds and you can keep open for as long as you like. Horrible spreads though.

 

[dee]

everyones at it

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43003740

 

[Edwin]

There will be a BBC Panorama special about “Bitcoin millionnaires” this coming week. Even if 50% of the programme is dedicated to warnings, I’m sure the concept is still going to hook some people who really shouldn’t invest (given their precarious finances)

That’s the unfortunate side of it going mainstream. It’s a perfectly ok thing for informed investors to punt a bit of spare cash into, but I think even the most optimistic would agree it’s not suitable for everyone...

 

[bonusmedia]

I managed to place my shorts so it will go to the moon now
I'm out automatically if it breaks $10.5K or goes 15 days. Should really have a target price too, but want to see what happens with news etc.
If Tether/Bitfinex are exposed in the next two weeks then I'll be happy.

It's in CFDs so I'm not driving your price down, hodlers

 

[dee]

I managed to place my shorts so it will go to the moon now
I'm out automatically if it breaks $10.5K or goes 15 days. Should really have a target price too, but want to see what happens with news etc.
If Tether/Bitfinex are exposed in the next two weeks then I'll be happy.

It's in CFDs so I'm not driving your price down, hodlers

Is there a timescale on tether audit / news ? I think ill wait till the news hits

 

[Edwin]

I managed to place my shorts so it will go to the moon now
I'm out automatically if it breaks $10.5K or goes 15 days. Should really have a target price too, but want to see what happens with news etc.
If Tether/Bitfinex are exposed in the next two weeks then I'll be happy.

It's in CFDs so I'm not driving your price down, hodlers

Two questions, if you are willing...
1) Can you cash out any time? (assuming it’s inside the 15 day limit and the upper bound isn’t hit)
2) Can you lose more than your original investment?