Future of Private Plates

[ian]

I'll be hacking in to manually override, iRobot style!

 

[dee]

Good discussion.

By 'buying' I don't necessarily mean a purchase...as of most new cars nowadays, the vast majority are leased, it's only after they've changed 'ownership' a couple of times that they start to be purchased outright. But the fact remains someone foots the bill for it.

I'm sure the tech will come down in price, but the cost of the hardware will rise as with everything. I can't see the cost of batteries coming down much.

My main concerns over autonomous vehicles is primarily the number of jobs that could go because of them, and the human and financial costs of that, which is something you haven't addressed. And secondly, I believe that once a certain number of these are on the roads, self driving vehicles will mandatorily be phased out. Consider this; if cars were just being invented, do you think any government would allow us to drive them?

I don't think you can stop it happening to be honest at some point. It will come down to cost, and eventually its probably more economical and safer. I think the next couple of generations are going to see a sea change in certain industries. Things like medicine, law, accounting will rapidly become replaced by AI . Medical diagnostics for instance. An AI can learn every previous case history and keep up with all current research pretty much instantly and know it all. Your average human doc, not so much. Not saying there wont be a need for human interaction , but certain areas I can see being completely transformed.

 

[Admin]

You've convinced me, I'm shopping for a used Porsche Cayenne 4.2 S Diesel whilst I still can!

 

[Edwin]

There are over 30 companies either testing autonomous vehicles now, or due to start in the next 5 years (and thousands of companies working in the overall “ecosystem” including sensors and GPS, mapping tech, simulations, AI and software)

The prize is worth $trillions so you can bet the pace of innovation, already frenetic, will only accelerate...

 

[Admin]

There are over 30 companies either testing autonomous vehicles now, or due to start in the next 5 years (and thousands of companies working in the overall “ecosystem” including sensors and GPS, mapping tech, simulations, AI and software)

The prize is worth $trillions so you can bet the pace of innovation, already frenetic, will only accelerate...

Could they run on a blockchain? ...I'll get my coat

 

[BREWSTERS]

About 4 million jobs in the US are in driving-related professions. So they are the most obviously endangered (Truck drivers even more than taxi drivers, because of their higher wages and the higher value add of their services from an overall economic perspective.)

I'd have thought there were a lot more than that when there's c. 1m driving related jobs in the UK.

But determining winners and losers overall is enormously complex since there are dozens (maybe hundreds) of impacted groups, but equally a ton of new business opportunities that never existed before.

For instance (just one example) if people used to commute an hour each way, driving themselves, that’s 2 hours a day of free/spare/available time for work, online shopping, leisure pursuits, remote meetings, hobbies, writing, eating, sleeping etc. And many of those activities will generate new revenue that their providers didn’t have before automation entered the picture.

Which people that used to commute two hours a day, wont be? I thought they would still be commuting, just in autonomous taxis as per the UBS report. Or is this the people who have been put out of a job? Where are they going to get the funds for the extra hobbies, eating, shopping, leisure etc?

 

[Edwin]

More generally, the progression in AI looks something like this:
- a joke
- very limited but useful
- more sophisticated but less than human
- human equivalent in a narrow specialism
- as good as several humans (narrow)
- as good as MANY humans (narrow) / human-like (broad)
- as good as all humans (narrow) / several humans (broad)
- god-like* (narrow) / MANY humans (broad)
- all humans (broad)
- god-like* (broad)

* when compared to human level intelligence

 

[dee]

Could they run on a blockchain? ...I'll get my coat

Insurance could, or the next uber, or in fact the pool car journey charges.

In fact... you could set up coatcoin (copyrighted and com bought) Every jacket is verified by every other coat wearer.

 

[BREWSTERS]

There are over 30 companies either testing autonomous vehicles now, or due to start in the next 5 years (and thousands of companies working in the overall “ecosystem” including sensors and GPS, mapping tech, simulations, AI and software)

The prize is worth $trillions so you can bet the pace of innovation, already frenetic, will only accelerate...

There are hundreds of companies currently involved in vehicle manufacture, and similarly thousands involved in parts development and manufacture. There are more parts in a normal car than there are in EVs (to be honest, that's a guess based on there being very few moving parts in an electric motor by comparison to a combustion engine).

 

[Edwin]

I'd have thought there were a lot more than that when there's c. 1m driving related jobs in the UK.

That’s for truck drivers and taxi drivers. All this data is public BTW, and easily obtainable.

Which people that used to commute two hours a day, wont be? I thought they would still be commuting, just in autonomous taxis as per the UBS report. Or is this the people who have been put out of a job? Where are they going to get the funds for the extra hobbies, eating, shopping, leisure etc?

If you don’t have to watch the road then you can use the time for other things (which can be done within a car). I am not saying commutes themselves will disappear, I’m saying they will transform into work/leisure opportunities.

And most people (except the relative few who have lost jobs and not found different ones) will have more spending power because transport gets cheaper.

 

[Edwin]

There are hundreds of companies currently involved in vehicle manufacture, and similarly thousands involved in parts development and manufacture. There are more parts in a normal car than there are in EVs (to be honest, that's a guess based on there being very few moving parts in an electric motor by comparison to a combustion engine).

How is that relevant? Every major auto manufacturer is working on autonomous vehicles, plus a ton of companies that have nothing to do with cars. So there’s more activity in the sector overall than just from car firms. And therefore more innovation.

While long-term there are likely to be fewer cars on the road, vast fortunes lie ahead until all the regular cars have been retired.

 

[dee]

How is that relevant? Every major auto manufacturer is working on autonomous vehicles, plus a ton of companies that have nothing to do with cars. So there’s more activity in the sector overall than just from
car firms.

While long-term there are likely to be fewer cars on the road, vast fortunes lie ahead until all the regular cars have been retired.

I suspect it also wont be long before we start getting very 'flash gordon' and potentially lose the tether of the ground. Drone tech is extremely advanced, and i suspect opening up of at least slightly higher than ground level isnt that far behind ground tethered autonomous cars.

For the long distance commuter theres also the possibility of stuff like hyperloop, which musk is actually in the process of building. Your two hour commute could suddenly see you at work in New York

 

[BREWSTERS]

That’s for truck drivers and taxi drivers. All this data is public BTW, and easily obtainable.

There are van drivers, mail deliveries, bus and coach drivers...1m in the UK, I'd expect 6m+ in the US.

If you don’t have to watch the road then you can use the time for other things (which can be done within a car). I am not saying commutes themselves will disappear, I’m saying they will transform into work/leisure opportunities.

And most people (except the relative few who have lost jobs and not found different ones) will have more spending power because transport gets cheaper.

You haven't convinced me that transport will become cheaper, especially when you factor in higher taxes.

 

[Edwin]

What higher taxes?

 

[BREWSTERS]

How is that relevant? Every major auto manufacturer is working on autonomous vehicles, plus a ton of companies that have nothing to do with cars. So there’s more activity in the sector overall than just from car firms. And therefore more innovation.

While long-term there are likely to be fewer cars on the road, vast fortunes lie ahead until all the regular cars have been retired.

Its relevant because while development of autonomous cars increases, development of normal cars will decrease and therefore no net benefit to jobs. In fact with there being far fewer parts to develop in EVs, there could be a net loss in jobs.

The jobs aspect cannot be glossed over.

 

[BREWSTERS]

What higher taxes?

I detailed them in earlier posts.

If you don't think that with hundreds of thousands of jobs lost to autonomous vehicles; loss of fuel duty; loss (reduction) of new vehicle duty, and the VAT on top of those...will lead to higher taxes, you're not facing reality.

 

[scottmccloud]

Regarding the job losses that will inevitably come with more and more automation, isn't that why the idea of a universal basic income is being tested in some countries like Finland?

 

[Edwin]

There are savings of tens of billions to be made on the health side and in other domains from far far fewer accidents, so that should balance out a ton of taxes. If all accidents were eliminated that would save £35 billion a year using the Government’s own figures...
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/665327/ras60003.ods

Of course a zero accident rate is implausible, but it’s likely SDC will eliminate most of the 94% of accidents that are down to “human error”.

Unless you believe cars will be replaced by self-driving vehicles that are as rubbish as humans at driving? Because that really does sound unbelievable! (Why would people switch?)

 

[dee]

If you don't think that with hundreds of thousands of jobs lost to autonomous vehicles; loss of fuel duty; loss (reduction) of new vehicle duty, and the VAT on top of those...will lead to higher taxes, you're not facing reality.

There are also the hundreds of millions generated by parking and traffic offences, which is a huge income. That would pretty much disappear.

I think in terms of jobs, there'll be a long crossover period where the drivers will be custodians. It's almost like modern aviation. Your average commercial Pilot spends their time dialling in headings to an autopilot mid route. They basically only land/take most fly by wire's to keep their hand in. ILS can land commercial aircraft these days no problem.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Regarding the job losses that will inevitably come with more and more automation, isn't that why the idea of a universal basic income is being tested in some countries like Finland?

That's an interesting proposition - I'll be interested to see the results of the test.

I don't know if that would be sustainable, but interesting.