Future of Private Plates

[martin-s]

Make no mistake, the future is getting faster!

Yet you refuse to believe in crypto currencies

 

[Edwin]

Yet you refuse to believe in crypto currencies

I believe in blockchain because I can see the utility as clear as daylight. I don't believe in cryptocurrencies, because one can be substituted for another as easily as can be, because new ones can be created at will (we're up to 2,000 from zero just a handful of years ago) and because no one currency is indisputably needed to make blockchain tech stuff work.

But since they only hold their value because of the faith of those buying them, not through any inherent quality, it seems inevitable they will eventually crumble. That's not to say that others won't get rich along the way, but it's too much of a roller-coaster ride for me.

Perhaps, however, we should pursue this aspect further on the Bitcoin thread, rather than here?

 

[Edwin]

Roundup of the current state of self-driving play when it comes to the big tech firms contesting the market...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/12/int...oduce-self-driving-car-technology-at-ces.html

And more detail about Intel’s big play...
https://www.theinquirer.net/inquire...ving-car-thanks-to-tapping-into-mobileye-tech

And nVidia...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/01/12/nvidia-scores-4-new-big-wins-in-driverless-vehicle.aspx

 

[martin-s]

I believe in blockchain because I can see the utility as clear as daylight. I don't believe in cryptocurrencies

But you need crypto currencies to power blockchains?

 

[Edwin]

But you need crypto currencies to power blockchains?

No. This was one example mentioned in the other thread...
https://hackernoon.com/4-alarming-reasons-ripple-might-not-be-what-you-think-9debc3c86985

 

[martin-s]

OK, that's true, but only if you look at xCurrent as being a private blockchain, rather than a public proof?

 

[Admin]

When cars are autonomous and self-driving, it's far less likely that there will be a need to be able to identify them visually, because they're going to be filled to the gills with high tech gadgetry, at least some of which is almost bound to want/need to communicate with other vehicles, road/sign sensors, etc. etc. There are also likely to be sophisticated "black boxes" built in so that there's 100% data availability and retention in case of an accident - these will record every scrap of information the myriad sensors are feeding them.

So we may be 10-20 years away from the end of numberplates but it's hard to see them surviving beyond when people are no longer allowed to drive themselves. Because IF self-driving vehicles work, and work WELL, then that will be the final end-game: if in a world populated by self-driving and human-driven vehicles the most dangerous thing on the road by far is the "fleshy" behind the steering wheel then at some point there will be almost unbearable pressure for government to litigate and take that danger away. That's if soaring insurance premiums don't take the cars off the road first. And of course by 2040 internal combustion engines are goners anyway.

Looking at the insurance aspect, if a car driver has an accident every million miles but a well-tuned, well-trained, well-optimised self-driving vehicle has one every ten million miles, then why would insurance companies continue to shoulder the risk of human drivers when there's a simple, much less dangerous alternative that will inevitably result in fewer accidents? And when every self-driving vehicle on the road monitors/records as a matter of course the position, speed and trajectory of every single other vehicle (as part of the computations required to keep it accident-free) then bad driving will stick out like a sore thumb. It's possible to imagine a future in which self-driving cars are programmed to "dob in" bad drivers (anyone who breaks the rules of the road and/or drives in a manner that is dangerous given the then-present road conditions) as a drive towards ever-greater safety.

Nice post. But insurance companies will still offer insurance for the fleshy drivers, they will just charge more. As long as the risks/rewards make sense for them they will make a market, because there will always be a set of the population who are like 'demolition man'...I'm one. I'll want to drive myself, I enjoy driving, putting pedal to the metal, feel the power, hear the engine. I'll also want to use my willy for sex rather than a vr headset. Too much information...

 

[dee]

I'll also want to use my willy for sex rather than a vr headset.

How does the VR headset thing work for sex? Do you strap it on.

 

[Admin]

Have you seen 'demolition man'? It was a headset only.

Anyway, take a look at this:

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[Edwin]

Nice post. But insurance companies will still offer insurance for the fleshy drivers, they will just charge more. As long as the risks/rewards make sense for them they will make a market, because there will always be a set of the population who are like 'demolition man'...I'm one. I'll want to drive myself, I enjoy driving, putting pedal to the metal, feel the power, hear the engine. I'll also want to use my willy for sex rather than a vr headset. Too much information...

Self-driving cars are coming even sooner than any of us expect (even me). There will be some already in 2019
https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/12/16880978/gm-autonomous-car-2019-detroit-auto-show-2018

If they can pull that off with even a 1 or 2 year delay, then it's easy to anticipate mass market penetration of self-driving vehicles for the mid-2020s. Fast forward 10 more years (average lifespan of a car) and most of the vehicles on the road will be self-driving (and electric). Which, incidentally, will kill most of the fuss around the end of internal combustion engines in 2040.

Think about the smartphone market for a moment. It was pretty much created by Apple's first iPhone in 2007 (although there were smartphones before that, none of them reached a wide audience nor were very successful). So we've gone from essentially zero to 2 billion+ devices in just a decade. Why? For a wide range of reasons, but primarily because they weren't just better, they were MUCH better than what came before.

It's quite possible the general public will see self-driving cars in the same way. Especially if they're made available at a cheap monthly rate and summoned "on demand" rather than owned. Imagine paying a couple of hundred quid a month (say) for the right to call a car any time to go anywhere at no additional cost. And then being able to sit in said car and not worry about a thing, watching TV, browsing the web, playing games, etc. while it whisks you smoothly and silently to your destination.

 

[Admin]

I believe one of the greatest technological limitations is in battery technology. For me its not moving forward fast enough and if / when it does it will be a massive game changer. Until it does we cannot have autonomous vehicles alone because they have crap range. I recently went on a trip of 300km. In 2 weeks I'll be driving 10 or 11 hours (1000km), ideally in one day and you couldnt do this with an electric car (which presumably will be the power source for automous cars). The battery charge times are too long and inconvenient. As a solution it still massively trails behind the combustion engine for convenience (refueling/charging time of 2 minutes). The fact that most mobiles will still struggle to give a days use when used fairly actively is surprising and disappointing.

 

[dee]

I believe one of the greatest technological limitations is in battery technology. For me its not moving forward fast enough and if / when it does it will be a massive game changer. Until it does we cannot have autonomous vehicles alone because they have crap range. I recently went on a trip of 300km. In 2 weeks I'll be driving 10 or 11 hours (1000km), ideally in one day and you couldnt do this with an electric car (which presumably will be the power source for automous cars). The battery charge times are too long and inconvenient. As a solution it still massively trails behind the combustion engine for convenience (refueling/charging time of 2 minutes). The fact that most mobiles will still struggle to give a days use when used fairly actively is surprising and disappointing.

Agreed battery tech is currently a limiting factor. But guys like musk are throwing huge reources at it to improve it and its rapidly getting better. I know tesla has a fast charge at their station so did a quick search

Tesla supercharging stations charge with up to 145 kW of power distributed between two cars with a maximum of 120 kW per car. They take about 20 minutes to charge to 50%, 40 minutes to charge to 80%, and 75 minutes to 100%.

So thats not actually that bad on a long journey. Stop for a coffee and stretch legs, charge the car and on your way. I guess at the mo you have to plan for those breaks as they arent in every moterway stop, but dont think it will take that long when it gets hold properly and costs come down

 

[Edwin]

I believe one of the greatest technological limitations is in battery technology. For me its not moving forward fast enough and if / when it does it will be a massive game changer. Until it does we cannot have autonomous vehicles alone because they have crap range. I recently went on a trip of 300km. In 2 weeks I'll be driving 10 or 11 hours (1000km), ideally in one day and you couldnt do this with an electric car (which presumably will be the power source for automous cars). The battery charge times are too long and inconvenient. As a solution it still massively trails behind the combustion engine for convenience (refueling/charging time of 2 minutes). The fact that most mobiles will still struggle to give a days use when used fairly actively is surprising and disappointing.

Maybe you'll need to spend 60 seconds changing vehicle to a newly charged on once every 3 hours or so. (I can't imagine that would be a huge hardship, since you'd want to stretch your legs anyway.) Shouldn't be too complicated if you're using a car-as-service since your vehicle will be able to signal ahead and another can swing into place in an appropriate change-over spot.

Plus as dee indicated, battery tech is improving - and once the number of electric cars goes up tenfold, then tenfold again, the incentive to get better gets better, if you see what I mean...

By contrast, for your 10 hour journey, you can figure on 10 hours of R&R time when you don't have to care about watching the road. That's basically half a day tacked on to your trip/holiday - at either end, if you're talking about having to make the same drive back again. I believe the average person will be willing to put up with a little bit of fiddle-factor in exchange for those 10 hours.

 

[dee]

Maybe you'll need to spend 60 seconds changing vehicle to a newly charged on once every 3 hours or so. (I can't imagine that would be a huge hardship, since you'd want to stretch your legs anyway.) Shouldn't be too complicated if you're using a car-as-service since your vehicle will be able to signal ahead and another can swing into place in an appropriate change-over spot.

Or they have stations that change a battery over for you so you dont even have to get out of the car and move suitcases etc

 

[Edwin]

Or they have stations that change a battery over for you so you dont even have to get out of the car and move suitcases etc

Or the bed of the boot slides out and slots into a new vehicle with your stuff still in place. All sorts of things are possible when you're reinventing the driving paradigm with a clean slate.

(BTW, while early self-driving cars look like they're going to be largely car-shaped, there's no reason why that has to be the case. You can imagine a much greater variety of shapes and sizes if you don't have to worry about accommodating a driver with a (practically) 360-degree field of view. And the space taken up by the engine is likely to be much smaller too, plus the battery doesn't have to be a big blocky thing - it can be thinned out and spread around the shell of the vehicle. Again, it will take time for the evolving market to settle on new designs, but once they do many people will find it hard to go back to the prehistoric layout of an old-style car, with its cramped seat-wells and very limited freedom of movement.)

 

[dee]

Of course. Again, look at the Tesla. Storage up front and at rear. No engine.

I suspect it will take a while for "coffee table" cars to exist though as there is still the safety aspect. It wil still have to accelerate, decelerate and turn corners.And even its a circular sofa pod with a glass dome so you can see every direction people will need to be strapped in for a bit a reckon. If nothing else the " im filing a case because the car turned and i scalded myself with coffee" potential will keep manufacturers scared I would have thought.

 

[Edwin]

Plus when vehicles are self-driving and available "on demand" that also allows for pod-type single person commuter vehicles (offered at a lower per-trip price, maybe) i.e. about half the width of a regular car and with a single seat and very limited luggage space. They'd be perfect for rush hour situations, where you might have hundreds or thousands of vehicles converging on a single spot such as a transport interchange. Such vehicles would take up much less road space and might even be grouped so that they could ride two abreast and occupy the same footprint as a single car currently does. That would dramatically reduce congestion and speed up travel times during peak hours - which in turn would make each pod available to the next customer much quicker than now.

In the above scenario, you can imagine 3 people need to get to a train station between 8am and 9am. At the moment, they all take at least 30-45 minutes to get there in 3 separate cars because the roads are jammed with vehicles. Then they have to battle for space in the car park, and they're already tired and frustrated by the time they're on the train. But with less congested roads, suddenly the journey times drop dramatically - and maybe there's time for one vehicle to accommodate 2 of these journeys because each only takes 15-20 minutes. So that's even fewer vehicles needed (each of which takes up less space) which decongests the roads still further.

The same mini vehicles could be made available during school run hours to bring kids home from school. With scads of sensors inside and out, it would be like having an ever-alert chaperone watching over your child. There's no reason why any but the youngest children shouldn't be able to make the journey alone.

Then the pods come into their own for a third time during the homeward rush. Even fewer are needed, because the home journeys tend to be a bit more scattered than the outward journeys in the morning, so each pod could easily service 2-3 journeys or more.

Think about driving around a town or city at 4am. It's usually so fast, you're in and out before you notice. Now if you can apply serious smarts to crushing traffic at peak times (e.g. with the approaches I outlined above) there's no reason why a similar experience can't be available at 8am...

And again, something like this will act as a massive incentive to get people out of their big fleshy-driven rust-buckets and into a wide array of purpose-built self-driving vehicles. Less congestion, less pollution, less road maintenance, less parking, etc. The list of benefits goes on and on.

 

[Admin]

Mmm not buying these car changing solutions as they don't take into account the fact the car is your private setup containing lots of personal possessions... luggage...2 large dogs etc

 

[JMI]

I don't believe the 2040 end of engines deadline is practically possible.. just a Gove attention grabbing headline that will be perpetually rolled back until more like 2100

 

[dee]

Mmm not buying these car changing solutions as they don't take into account the fact the car is your private setup containing lots of personal possessions... luggage...2 large dogs etc

could end up being a hybrid , with a fleet of pool cars in cities for convenience available to anyone. OR you can choose to own so you can keep your own dog hair, glove compartment porn collection etc to yourself. You could still be part of the changeover system for batteries etc even if you did own. The pool car system would also have the advantage of being able to store them out of congested areas. They just pop in from massive carpaks out of town / underground when needed

Of course, all this would rely for instance on a common standard. Not something were good at generally. Just look at most things of importance in say USA & Europe. It might be Beta / VHS again for a while