EU Referendum

[martin-s]

And actually, check this out:
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:31994R2257:EN:HTML

C. Presentation

The bananas must be presented in hands or clusters (parts of hands) of at least four fingers.

 

[Skinner]

So who plans on putting their money where their mouth it ?

I already got a nice cash out option on a big bet on the referendum being before 2020 (bet made 4 years ago), second part based on the stay or go element. When I'm driving my brand new Ferrari, I mean Dacia Duster I'll let you know how I went on

 

[AssetDomains]

Agree spiderspider. I'm actually surprised at your take on this Edwin - I had you down as something of an intellectual!

seems a bit harsh Edwin's seems to have posted a lot of supporting evidence to support his arguments while the leavers have posted a facebook video I haven't made up my mind yet which way I'll vote but I'll want some more facts other than a video on facebook told me to leave

 

[Brassneck]

Agree spiderspider. I'm actually surprised at your take on this Edwin - I had you down as something of an intellectual!

Compared to your average Daily Mail reader and UKIP voter intending to vote 'out' then I am sure he is an intellectual.

 

[martin-s]

We need more post rating options!

 

[bonusmedia]

I believe remaining is in our best interests. Yes, there are problems with the EU but overall I believe it has been a force for good and will continue to be so. It's a divisive issue and I can see some good points on both sides.

I dislike the way the out campaign is using immigration to appeal to xenophobia and fear. We are utterly reliant on immigration, our NHS would collapse without it. 10% of our doctors are EU immigrants. Immigrants contribute far more than they take out of the system.

I also find this '£350 million per week' figure very annoying - quite apart from all the benefits and investment we get directly back, the rebate is applied before any payment is made, which already makes it £250 million per week. It's just bullshit.

The idea that we'll be able to cut a load of red tape just isn't right - if we're going to keep trading with the EU we'll still have to meet all those regulations. The only thing we could cut would be workers' rights and most people seem to want to keep those.

However I think the remain campaign is wrong to portray brexit as certain disaster, since predictions are of course uncertain.

The uncertainty is the biggest issue, markets don't like it and it seems very likely the upheaval and time taken to renegotiate treaties etc will mean we take an economic hit in the short term even if there are some benefits in the long term. People saying it can all be easily resolved obviously haven't done much international treaty negotiation

Brexit might leave us better off eventually - but no-one knows this for sure and there is a big risk involved. To be honest I suspect few of us are qualified to actually assess this risk properly and therefore the opinions of experts - as on the Wikipedia page Edwin posted - are quite important to me, and they certainly stack up in favour of Remain.

It does worry me when anyone says they are 100% certain, that tends to suggest an emotional rather than rational decision.

I can see why people distrust foreign bureaucracy and I also understand that many people feel patriotic and identify as British first - but realistically the Empire is long gone and we're much more powerful on the world stage as a leader of the EU than out on our own.

I'd also quite like the UK to stay together and that would be unlikely after Brexit.

 

[scottmccloud]

I'm still wavering but I think some of the scare stories that Cameron has been coming out with are ridiculous. If a Brexit really would be so disastrous in terms of war, the economy et al. then it was obviously completely irresponsible of him to agree to a referendum in the first place.

What is also interesting about the whole referendum is that whilst the Conservatives are at war with each other, it shows just how disastrous Corbyn's leadership of the Labour Party is when you look at the polls. You'd expect an opposition party to be in a much better position than what Labour are now.

 

[newguy]

--

 

[Edwin]

If you're interested in making an informed decision, here are some good places to start trying to divine the "truth" (as far as it can be ascertained - by necessity, a lot of things are projections, plans, estimates, etc.)
http://openeurope.org.uk/blog/label/fact-check/
https://fullfact.org/europe/
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/tag/eu-referendum
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/28/eu-referendum-fact-checking-the-big-claims/
https://next.ft.com/content/133da9c0-f7f7-11e5-803c-d27c7117d132

Concentrate especially on what the various sources say about the one-way nature of the Leave decision. There is strong, broad agreement that it's not something that can be reversed on a whim if, oops, things don't work out.

Yes, it can be a significant effort to dig through so much material, since both Remain and Leave put out contradictory statements on just about every topic. From my reading of hundreds of articles over the last six months, though, I'd say...

A) Both sides are telling plenty of porkies, but the Leave side's porkies are more dangerous since the downside of them being wrong is that the situation gets much worse than it is now. The situation should the vote be to stay, however, is the status quo i.e. there might just possibly be an upside to Leave, but there's a very definite possibility of a big downside. Remain, and nothing changes. So, in that respect, Remain is much less riskier than Leave.

B) Leave's arguments often read as if they've been written by somebody with handy access to a time machine, e.g. references back to the situation in 1975 when the world was such a different place that the comparison is absurd and therefore unhelpful.

C) The inaccuracies on the Remain side tend to be on the order of magnitude nature of estimates (i.e. "this or that figure can't be as precise as they claim") or of over-cautious figures ("the losses would not be as bad as...") The inaccuracies on the Leave side, on the other hand, tend to be blunter: they state many things that are categoric untruths (e.g. the fear-mongering claims about Turkey and other countries being within a few years of being granted full EU access) or have no supporting evidence of any kind, yet present them as facts.

When you really get into the claims and counter-claims, Remain have made an overwhelming/compelling/strong/weak (delete as you interpret it) case for the "danger" of brexit. Leave have made a very weak to insignificant case for the "danger" of remaining, instead choosing to focus on the (possibly/probably/almost certainly) nebulous benefits that might or might not accrue from leaving.

Imagine that a doctor is advertising a miracle cure. There's a small (but maybe real) chance it will turn you into a long-lived, hyper-healthy individual. But there's also a very solid chance it will make you very ill instead (most of the leading lights of the medical profession are on record as concurring that the latter is the more likely outcome) Would you really be willing to take that bet and inject yourself with that cure if you were healthy and disease-free?

Because that's basically what camp Leave are asking the voters of the UK to do with the future of this country: gamble a situation that on the whole works reasonably well, albeit with the inefficiencies and unfairnesses that are inherent in any massive bureaucratic system, and stake everything on a big unknown.

Here's the thing: you absolutely don't have to take my word on any of the above. Just head off to the links I listed above, and form your own opinions!

 

[MikeJDS]

I'd be interested to see an Acorn EU Poll.
Remain/Leave/Undecided. (anonymous vote).
Would @admin allow that?

 

[Adam H]

I'd be interested to see an Acorn EU Poll.
Remain/Leave/Undecided. (anonymous vote).
Would @admin allow that?

Ive abused my powers and added a vote to this thread

 

[Admin]

I'd be interested to see an Acorn EU Poll.
Remain/Leave/Undecided. (anonymous vote).
Would @admin allow that?

Yes go for it, it's one of the most important national decisions you will ever get a vote on.

 

[Edwin]

Yes go for it, it's one of the most important national decisions you will ever get a vote on.

Agree 100%. Even if you never vote in elections, you should vote in this referendum. After all, it has the potential to shape the future of the UK for generations.

 

[paymatters]

I think it's an impossible decision for the general public (myself included) to make. You don't know what to believe and for most it's just seen as a way of stopping immigration. Tories have been clever turning it into Cameron v Boris as one will win and hence tories can't lose.

 

[MikeJDS]

I think it's an impossible decision for the general public (myself included) to make. You don't know what to believe

That's essentially been the government plan all along.
To be void of just about any facts, try & confuse people & drive fear for a remain vote.

For anyone undecided - forget the media spin - Spend some time to DYOR and then make up your own mind.

Edit:
Just to add..
Two things you can be sure of IF Brexit goes ahead...

1. Trade won't stop.
2. Immigration won't stop.

 

[scottmccloud]

This is an excellent essay from the Adam Smith Institute arguing the case for Brexit for a number of reasons including:

• The best exit route is for the UK to step back to a position in the European Economic Area (‘EEA’) and the European Free Trade Association (‘EFTA’), thereby wholly maintaining the open trading arrangements of the single market and related economic integration.
• This EEA option allows the public to judge ‘what out looks like’ and simultaneously reassures them that disruption will be minimal. Once out, the dynamics of the move would prompt a recalibration of the EEA agreement and indeed the political map of Europe such that other liberal, trade-oriented EU nations would join the UK, leaving the Eurozone to politically integrate.

It's a long read but it's well worth it. http://www.adamsmith.org/evolution-not-revolution

 

[monaghan]

A few thoughts...

Surely the trade deals we have are done on price or quality not the fact that we are in the EU? These deals surely are not going to halt overnight without completion are they? The companies involved will need to negotiate new deals when these contracts come to an end, but won't they have to do that anyway?

There was a farmer on the radio the other day saying France was a major market for him, why don't we buy & eat what our farmers produce? The environmentalists are all about food miles, if we eat what we grow / produce, we'll support our industry and reduce the food miles.

There was mention of house building, whether we're in or out, we'll still need somewhere for our ever increasing population to live.

Leaving is not going to stop the flow of immigrants any more than staying will stop them, for most, their reason for coming here is not due to being in the EU, it is false expectations set by others.

Whether or not other countries will leave if we do shouldn't be a stick to beat us with, we need to decide what is best for us, that's the purpose of the vote.

Unfortunately the politics is getting in the way of the real issues and as has been suggested it is very difficult to see the real positives & negatives due to the conflicting "facts & figures" everyone is presenting and as a result, I do fear that this will be a protest vote based on headlines and spin rather than reasoned debate of the facts.

We're not going to close the tunnel and stop talking to rest of Europe and go it alone the day the vote to leave is announced any more than the Europeans are going to rush in and buy our goods & services if the vote to stay is announced. I suspect for most they will not actually notice any difference.

Personally, I'd favour getting out of the political union, but keeping trading links with those who want to trade.

 

[spiderspider]

For anyone undecided - forget the media spin

BBC news lead this morning with a report from the IFS that said doom and gloom.

However, the IFS report was directly funded by ESRC which is funded in part by EU. There are more places where reports saying doom and gloom can have their funded linked back to government and EU.

 

[bonusmedia]

Just from a domaining point of view - isn't it in the interests of .uk portfolio holders that Scotland stays in the UK - and isn't that a lot less likely after Brexit?

 

[Edwin]

BTW, nobody seems to mention that one reason immigrants want to come to Britain is because many already have some/good/superb command of English, regardless of which country they're coming from. If they stayed in any other European country, they'd have to start learning the language from scratch and be even further behind the "locals" in the pursuit of jobs.

Staying or going won't change that, it's a "quirk" of our national language.