Membership is FREE, giving all registered users unlimited access to every Acorn Domains feature, resource, and tool! Optional membership upgrades unlock exclusive benefits like profile signatures with links, banner placements, appearances in the weekly newsletter, and much more - customized to your membership level!

is this our very own Grandin?

Status
Not open for further replies.
This I found interesting:

ntlworld.com money

...Percentage price changes over ten years 1996-2006:

Rent = 32.4%

House Prices = 189.5% (average price from 67k to £195k)


Conclusion:

People are stupid and greedy - Banks are smart and greedy!

Don't give away your money to the banks!


PS: I rent my home and pay much less per month than I would pay if I had bought it!
 
Last edited:
For dis

Hi dis,

I would be interested to know where the properties are located i.e. what towns

What you are seeing is a generalised turn off from property....people aren't so interested but they will need to move, or the teenagers need to leave home, or the son/daughters needs to go to university.....you can't change what is needed.

If someone can show me there is enough property to go around then I will change my stance.

The other variable is that properties may well be built, bought and rented in the wrong areas....

Too many variables but as a whole buy to let mortgage arrears are very low so landlords must be letting their properties

Lee
 
The cities are sheffield and leeds.

There is an oversupply (we are prob singing from same hym sheet Grandin) of flats which investors have piled into. Prob is they dont have stable tenants who like where they are living and many of them are overpriced boxes. On many of the those flats, they offer more than 40% as they try to sell units which dont shift. I have seen investors pay £350k for a penthouse in the wrong complex and wrong area and hence no tenant...when a nice leeds house weighs in at about the same.

So many investors are driven by fear and greed, and they seem to be coupled together very tightly at the moment. Investors are afraid they will miss out, miss the opportunity and when their friends are driving a brand new ferarri...think why dont I become a property developer.

There are so many new builds around sheffield esp. Plus even the university has been selling off houses to fund its new construction project, but again these are often still languishing.

I agree that a house is FAR FAR better than any flat....and I can see flats heading for a real rocky road ahead and in some cases would expect reversion to 2001 prices.
 
Another variable

Another variable is this:-

Planners have been following government policy i.e. to create more affordable housing which will lead to more flats and go up instead of out....some of what you say maybe partly due to people adjusting to what they have to have as opposed to what they want.

Regional differences in demand and supply will have an effect and you do find that a re-generation program does create a short term over supply which lasts a few years......regeneration programs are in the making for years and when they finally get the green light its build bonanza....

migration to sheffield may occur to fill those unoccupied properties.....

We go round and round the cycle. many small cycles eventually fill the ultimate cycle....demand equals supply....20 years i say

Lee
 
I see the markets like physical systems. It seems we are a long way from equilibrium...eventually one will reach a time in the cycle when houses are more accurately a reflection of their true value...and a time when they are better value. It may take a while for the oversupply and changing market conditions (interest rates) and loans to kick in. But IT will kick in...and many people will be affected.

The spectre of neg equity WILL rear its ugly head and I see those who have bought through fear and over extended themselves in the most precarious position. How will the consumer feel when they that lovely two bedroom flat they bought is 30% less than the outstanding mortgage and they are already up to their eyeballs?

Any slight change in market conditions could signify major changes and a cascade effect destroying consumer confidence, jobs and the prospect of house price inflation. Whats more immigrant labour is keeping wage inflation in check.

Its interesting to note that the economist.com refers to the market as a global asset bubble. Its understandable...people have been burnt by paper assets such as shares and they have liked the so called security as they can see their investment. Trouble is you cant spend the house in tesco.
 
Dis and Lee

Who says I am not involve already...

IMO it is better to spread ur risk as my accountant said to me, if there was an economic crash at least with property u have the land

OB
 
all things relative

Yes ole....all things relative

A crash would effect all asset classes and any downturn will be relative.....it would be highly unlikely that shares would stand up better than property

didn't the 80's price crash also see a stockmarket crash???

With Bricks and Mortar you don't lose everything and you have the ability to gear unlike other asset classes

With a domain name there will always be a feeling that one day someone could come along and change the whole system but with property are we going to leave the earth and ive on mars or a planet in another galaxy.....not until the sun burns out!!!!!

In summary interest rates and employment levels will effect our investments, whatever those investments are. Lack of property supply will help property stand up well against other asset classes if we all see a economic crisis.

I talk about buy to let mortgages

Lee
 
Grandin

Property does tend to be more emotive because it would seem that it directly influences peoples behavior and the shape of society. I cant help but worry whenever I am in the estate agents and I see the phrase ´would suit FTB or investor alike´. So it would seem that FTB are in comp with landlords for their first rung on the property ladder. I can see this is a bad thing...as lack of stability will kill the consumer at the lower end of the market. It encourages renters to spend less and to feel less secure....and it cannot be good for the youngsters and the future stability.

Ole bean, with a flat realizing the value of the land is somewhat difficult. As you can see I have a real problem with flats, I consider them to be a poor investment for the owner and the investor at the moment.

You keep mentioning the lack of supply of housing. I just dont see it... there are plenty of houses for people. Take into account the rented stock and you are left with an over supply of property.

Yes shares may go down...they may continue to rise, but at the moment the shares are fairly prices whilst property is overpriced. So it depends where you fall from as to how hard you hit the ground. Property has a long way to fall...and shares are tied to fundamentals and there is a lot more liquidity to them. I have mad more in shares than property in the last two years...and you cant spend your house at the supermarket.
 
Dis

The gentleman I refer to invested in a particular area, taking advantage of some individuals social/ethnic background...

The returns are not typical in fact the norm for a 90-100k house would be 220-250 per week there is still scope for market entrants there is of course the danger that political changes my deter the availibility of tenants if anything i doubt that would happen the area is expanding some house prices have gone up 60%-100% in the last couple of years

So the right house and leg work as Lee suggests and you could be quids in, at least in the short term
 
Sure Olebean

I quite agree and its the old phrase of hard work...but still I believe the amateur investor see b2l as an easy option. Look around at the number of friends who have an ´investment property´. These guys did not do much research...but they bought at a time it was a rising market and a dog could pick up a b2l and make money. But the climate is changing...you cant be an idiot and make money. The same thing happened during the dot com period...any idiot could and did make money. I believe of the amateur investors without much clue are now in trouble with b2l. They have:

1. Bought properties in wrong areas.
2. Not taken into account void periods which are crippling financially.
3. Not appreciated the competition between landlords for tenants, esp new build flats where its a renters dream.

Some can afford to bail out. They bought in a rising market and there is a little room for maneuver. However an amateur trying it now needs their head examined.

Due diligence is the order of the day and people like myself pride themselves to be able to make money in any condition...and hard work is the order of the day and no Inside track course is going to make up for the hours and hours of extremely hard work.
 
Emotion

Emotion can do alot for and against....emotion can kill a market no matter the financial viability of that market.

Buy to lett'ers have made accomodation more flexible with the ability to up and move in a 6 months period....it is a misconception that all the young want to be tied down by property ownership.....are you saying that 15% of those living in property don't want that flexibility?.....remember buy to let only accounts for less than 15% of housing stock

Mortgage lenders are clever buggers, they would start to pull back now if they truly agreed with your statement re unoccupied property rates....they would start to reduce Loan To Values but they are increasing Loan To Values from 85% to 90%...

I personally think a let property is more secure for a lender than a first time buyer....something for a future press release

New build properties are too tight re rental yields thus short term as rates move up their is a possibility to get caught especially if you follow STUPID no bloody money down deals!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Liquidity is important but quite often if you a not highly geared remortgage can help a little.

It is interesting to see how domain names are becoming liquid the ability to shift quick is an exciting part of this market which could make it very profitable..............its a shame it couldn't bit switched to ownership or long term leases 999 years

Lee
 
Last edited:
Dis

So in some areas there is naivety in purchase enhanced by maybe a downcycle ... The problem I have is since 1993 the economy apparently has had sustained growth of approx 2%, even if you go back 100 years growth on average still remains at around 2% even taking into account the 80s crash when the economy shrank by 2%...

I know that doesnt help on an individual level but hell thats just collateral damage, weeding out the weak!
 
Anyone looking at the numerous charts of hp adjusted for inflation has to look at the peaks and troughs. Then refer to history and note that every peak was followed by a trough and we are now sitting on a very large peak.

I think interest rates will be at 6% next year! Inflation is too high and the BOE will act to break the inflation levels. Thats going to squeeze even more people, esp those on tight gearing...both land lords and owners.

We all know that houses are overpriced by any measure but yet mortgage lenders continue to talk it up.
 
Anyone looking at the numerous charts of hp adjusted for inflation has to look at the peaks and troughs. Then refer to history and note that every peak was followed by a trough and we are now sitting on a very large peak.

I think interest rates will be at 6% next year! Inflation is too high and the BOE will act to break the inflation levels. Thats going to squeeze even more people, esp those on tight gearing...both land lords and owners.

We all know that houses are overpriced by any measure but yet mortgage lenders continue to talk it up.

Next year's news just in

- unemployment rises by two million
- more businesses sold to asia and europe and with that uncertainty which puts off overses investors and shares plumet.
- strikes all round
- energy costs will go up AGAIN and AGAIN
- government will tax us to save us spending more on energy and ensure there's more energy to go around and we have more in our pocket so we don't spend it on energy so they can tax us more
- transport costs will go up even though fuels costs are going down, apparantly the ******g train line still needs ****8g fixing, *****g idiots. Oh to live in Japan...
- wage increase, you aint having none, in fact your wage may go down.
- a startling report that 70% of the country are now on the poverty line
- news that clothing prices are to increase by 70% over the next 18 months due to asia economy growth
- prices for most goods set to increase at an alarming rate
- more local and government taxes unveiled
- mass riots, both against government and involving racial tension
- hunting brought back, bird flu struck at Christmas and pigeons, foxes, rats and badgers need to be culled, hundreds of thousands of humans also dead, mass graves dug.
- new european plans unearthed that allow for mass British immigration to other member countries as it looks like the UK is about to completely collapse unless something is done quickly, the housing market will be second to go after mass job losses, people will be given money to settle elsewhere, those who can barely afford to live here yet were born in this country, will be shipped out first.
- House prices will drop to a reasonable level and the geezer next door who recently remortgaged his home for the third time (it's true) - will struggle greatly. Apparantly a lot of people have done this and also taken loans out on their homes, leaving banks very worried as to how they are going to recoup losses when 60% of their customer base defaults overnight as the economy goes bust - which is why they've been raping all of us with £5 billion pound bank charges annually. Aint you wondered why they're craping it?
- interest rates reach 8% as BOE fails to figure out what the hell is going on and they've helped put us in this place in the first place by not allowing decent wage increases for the stupid reason "we don't want the country to prosper too quickly - the only people who sould benefit from any money you have is business. immigrants and government, the individual shouldnt own or afford anything"
- banks across the nation are set fire to and vandalised and British economy grinds to a near halt, until banks cut their charges the rioting won't stop, the British public have finally had enough of being ripped off by all and sundry.
- Lee's abroad, laughing because he's as happy as can be in a country he can afford to live in and should have moved five years ago when living in the UK become near impossible unless you were an MP or public servant, yes one of the servants that got crammed into employment with a nothing job just like students into universities because the government wanted to massage the figures. Five years later and the figures are finally bearing fruit...
- oh yes, figures which will cripple this nation unless it's sorted quickly.

Happy days. :mrgreen:
 
And for anyone happy at how much their property is worth, here's a little warning that not many are telling you about, start saving and stop spending money and remortgaging on it and getting loans for holidays and goods you can't afford, when the crash comes you're buggered and I'm going to buy it off you for £50. The youth will get their property and no bstard financier is nicking my mums house, she aint going in a home, in her words "this house will be my sons"

The only good thing is I only have to sleep in a box for a minimum of 40 years because we usually live into our 90s. :mrgreen: but by then I'll have bought an house for £50 anyway hopefully, bring on the crash.
 
BOE comment

Just read BOE's comment that inflation is heading quicker than expected to hit the 2% target therefore interest rates unlikely to rise at least in the short term

As i said before tighten a screw slowly you dont get a crash just a slowing

Lee
 
Just read BOE's comment that inflation is heading quicker than expected to hit the 2% target therefore interest rates unlikely to rise at least in the short term

As i said before tighten a screw slowly you dont get a crash just a slowing

Lee

Rise again you mean? in the short term... Xmas is here, wait and see what happens there.
 
Grandin

The market is a long way from equilibrium...therefore a slight change can set off a chain of events that can cause very significant fluctuations. Its quite simple really and has been shown time and time again. Just one small event precipitates a huge crisis. Do you accept that property is overpriced?? If not I would like to know your valuation scheme! Thus we are treading on thin ice...too much uncertainty...

Dont be fooled into thinking everything is rosy. After all before any kind of slump its usually always a boom time!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

The Rule #1

Do not insult any other member. Be polite and do business. Thank you!

Members online

Premium Members

Latest Comments

New Threads

Our Mods' Businesses

*the exceptional businesses of our esteemed moderators
General chit-chat
Help Users
  • No one is chatting at the moment.
  • D AcornBot:
    Darren has left the room.
      D AcornBot: Darren has left the room.
      Top Bottom