Is Bitcoin the Next Big Thing?

[dee]

Anyone with a thousand BTC to throw at the market right now could make it dance a merry tune. For instance, it would only take 350 coins to drop it from 10,100 to 9,800 on Bitstamp

Would be interested in how you did the maths ? Surely (and this is a guess) but most exchanges use an aggregate of the market and whatever they think they need to hedge ? That was half the problem with the korean exchanges not being priced in properly wasnt it ?

 

[Edwin]

Would be interested in how you did the maths ? Surely (and this is a guess) but most exchanges use an aggregate of the market and whatever they think they need to hedge ? That was half the problem with the korean exchanges not being priced in properly wasnt it ?

I was just studying the bottom graph on http://bitcointicker.co/

It appears to show the requisite aggregate volume of coins needed to achieve a certain price, from the current starting price. If you mouse over the graph, you can see how many coins would be needed to be sold/bought to reach that price level. Of course, they'd have to be bought or sold at an appropriate price, but it is at least indicative. For instance, you can see the market is turning bullish if it would take far fewer coins for the index to increase in value rather than decrease.

I've stared at the graphs long enough over the last few weeks to decide they offer at least a decent stab at "sentiment analysis" in that respect.

 

[Edwin]

The way to interpret the lower graph from http://bitcointicker.co/

If the green downward trend line is much wider and shallower than the red upward trend line, that means it would take much less volume to move the price down than up. And the opposite is true if the green line is steep and narrow and the red line is shallow.

So for instance, in the screenshot below, you can see that the price will move much more easily negatively than positively at this particular moment because the green line meets the X-axis much further away to the left than the red line does to the right (the X-axis is a simple visual indicator showing a specific number of coins)

 

[Edwin]

And now, a couple of minutes later, you can see sentiment becoming more negative. The red line (representing a price increase compared to the current price) is even steeper, and the green line (price decrease) is even shallower. So a movement of 311 coins would drop the price from 10,088 to 9,800 (-288) but the same number of coins going the other way would only raise it to 10,150 (+62)

 

[Edwin]

BTW, the graphs don't guarantee anything. They only aggregate sentiment in that moment in time - but sentiment changes on a whim.

 

[dee]

BTW, the graphs don't guarantee anything. They only aggregate sentiment in that moment in time - but sentiment changes on a whim.

Thats cool. So they are basically showing their order book live it looks like. Dont know how ive missed that but thats useful !

 

[Edwin]

Thats cool. So they are basically showing their order book live it looks like. Dont know how ive missed that but thats useful !

I guess it's live. It might be slightly delayed. But it's at least something...

 

[Edwin]

Beware if you used a Visa card to charge your Coinbase account over the last few weeks. Some people are seeing multiple spurious charges...
https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/15/coinbase-blames-visa-for-glitch-that-overcharged-users/

Bit more on the story here...
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/02/16/coinbase_error/

 

[ian]

(waiting for Edwin to post his first 'good news' story on crypto currency )

 

[Edwin]

I managed to place my shorts so it will go to the moon now
I'm out automatically if it breaks $10.5K or goes 15 days. Should really have a target price too, but want to see what happens with news etc.
If Tether/Bitfinex are exposed in the next two weeks then I'll be happy.

It's in CFDs so I'm not driving your price down, hodlers

Bad luck, it looks like the price crossed your trigger level.

 

[martin-s]

Ouch?

 

[bonusmedia]

Ouch indeed! Here lies the beginning and ending of my CFD trading career. RIP - I learned a great lesson
I do still believe tether is a 'big lie' - among others - and I do still believe there is a further crypto crash in store.
I wish everyone the very best of luck with whatever positions they hold.

We might actually get around to building CompareBrokers.co.uk now I have some insight - and without the risk I took on last weekend.

I made another daft bet today - played my first game of squash and told my mate I'd win a game inside a year.
If anyone fancies a game somewhere near yorkshire let me know I intend to win this one

 

[dee]

Ouch indeed! Here lies the beginning and ending of my CFD trading career. RIP - I learned a great lesson

I made another daft bet today - played my first game of squash and told my mate I'd win a game inside a year.
If anyone fancies a game somewhere near yorkshire let me know I intend to win this one

The unfortunate thing is we may be not far off a reversal again ( in technical terms) Theres a decent channel top at at about 12300 ( i said 12ish previosuly) It could head back down from there past your stop loss which would hurt. That is exactly what would be happeing to me if i'd had the nuts to short when you did. Unless sentiment has really changed in which case if it pops that then,17.5 before a decent retracement. Its all guess work though unless you have hindsight.

Sucks you got stopped out. Sorry.

 

[accelerator]

Ouch indeed! Here lies the beginning and ending of my CFD trading career. RIP - I learned a great lesson

What was it?

 

[bonusmedia]

What was it?

Well several really, and I've learned them all before but obviously needed a refresher.

• Don't try to time a volatile market, even if you're sure of the fundamentals
• Don't be greedy and gamble on short term outcomes when there are plenty of sound opportunities for long term growth
• If you need several drinks to press the button it's probably the wrong button
• Don't get too big for your boots

 

[Edwin]

Well several really, and I've learned them all before but obviously needed a refresher.

• Don't try to time a volatile market, even if you're sure of the fundamentals
• Don't be greedy and gamble on short term outcomes when there are plenty of sound opportunities for long term growth
• If you need several drinks to press the button it's probably the wrong button
• Don't get too big for your boots

Would it (in theory) have been possible to place a simultaneous, separate "bet" that would only have paid off if BTC went over 10,500 (i.e. your automatic liquidation stop)? And could that have been used to hedge your short?

Or would this have been impossible or far too costly?

 

[bonusmedia]

Would it (in theory) have been possible to place a simultaneous, separate "bet" that would only have paid off if BTC went over 10,500 (i.e. your automatic liquidation stop)? And could that have been used to hedge your short?

Or would this have been impossible or far too costly?

I don't really know. Guess that it would probably would mean locking in a tiny profit rather than a potential big win.

Think I'll stick to trying to create value, it was all a bit stressful

 

[Edwin]

Somebody bought $400 million of BTC between February 9 and February 12. That must have been a contributing factor to the rebound since it represents over 15% of the total market volume across all exchanges during that timeframe...
http://fortune.com/2018/02/19/400-million-bitcoin-anonymous-investor/

 

[martin-s]

https://blockchain.info/largest-recent-transactions

 

[accelerator]

I think the answer to the original question I posed when I started this thread in June 2015 was a definite yes.

I think attempting to predict short term movements in Bitcoin is next to impossible, because large percentages of total Bitcoin are still controlled by a relatively low number of people, so the price can be affected by their actions.

What happened before Christmas was the "man in the street" got to know about it for the first time, and there was major speculation, call it a bubble if you like, but I think that will be a bit unfair as long term I still see Bitcoin rising above the $20,000 or whatever it reached.

I think what a lot of people never realised is that Bitcoin's true purpose is not a speculative "get rich quick" scheme, but a fairer way for people to store and exchange value, i.e. a fairer form of money.