Is Bitcoin the Next Big Thing?

[dee]

You never really know though do you, loads of investors keep getting sucked into the Tesla con and Elon Musk the ultimate snakeoil salesman.... when Audi and BMW are light years ahead of them when it comes to developing the tech for driverless cars.

Ive always thought Musk was a visionary myself. He's certainly not scared of going all in on anything. Although whats with the flamethrower crap. Doesn't make sense and is a deranged move imho.

 

[Edwin]

Bumping along at a 30-day low, with pretty big volume. It looks like the whales are still toughing it out - if one of the top 100 holders decided to liquidate in a hurry, the market would drop like a stone...

 

[Edwin]

And speaking of whales, I wonder if the big trades (50+ BTC) which seem so much larger than the average are as a result of whales pulling cash out of the market. You could imagine someone with a huge holding putting in an automatic sell order every 15 minutes for a random number close to 50 BTC (to not create too much of an obvious pattern) and that would allow them to pull close to $5 million a day out. For someone sitting on $hundreds of million, it might be a move dictated by prudence.

 

[Edwin]

It's also worth noting that at the very top of the market, all crypto currencies together were "worth" $795 Billion. Now they're "only" worth $393 Billion, so that's a paper loss of over $400 billion in the space of 3 weeks (peak came on 6 January)
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

All I can say is, it's fortunate the real losses (vs initial investment) won't be anything like that, because if something actually sucked $400 billion out of people's savings in 3 weeks you've have a new global financial crash as quickly as you could click your fingers. It's "real" in the sense that money isn't realisable any more at the moment, but it's "fictional" because it's largely a paper loss.

 

[ausername]

Ive always thought Musk was a visionary myself. He's certainly not scared of going all in on anything. Although whats with the flamethrower crap. Doesn't make sense and is a deranged move imho.

About a year ago I told my wife that I thought Elon Musk was the most important person in the world.

Now I see right through him.

His empire of unprofitable businesses has been built on about $5bn of government money by the way.... He's blown through billions of dollars of government money, Tesla shares are massively overvalued by the markets, he needs to find more money from somewhere again... and he's selling baseball caps and flamethrowers. Tesla loses thousands of dollars per car it sells... SolarCity is broke... the Hyperloop will never happen.... SpaceX won't win the space tourism race.

He also keeps coming out with new major problems that he believes he can solve... he ought to consider offering better value to Tesla, Solar City and SpaceX investors... rather than getting into tunnel boring and Australian water grids.

Tesla are years behind General Motors, Audi, and BMW when it comes to car tech. The market cap of Tesla is about equal to the market cap of GM, which makes zero sense because General Motors sell a hell of a lot more cars and is sitting on a lot more technology.... and doesn't have major cash flow problems. But people bet on Tesla, because Elon Musk is a smooth talker and can hype up his businesses. General Motors would be the more sensible bet, and the one that Warren Buffet would make.

I actually think his pack of cards tumbling will be a hell of a lot bigger than the point at which the crypto bubble will pop once and for all. It would have a seroious affect on the real world economy.

Is it morally and ethically right to have a personal wealth of $16.5bn off of the back of a series of unprofitable businesses which are being propped up by tax dollars taken from the struggling middle classes, when none of them are going to actually achieve their ultimate objectives ahead of competing businesses who are self funding their R&D?

I don't see where the business is to be honest. Perhaps General Motors can buy the Tesla brand out of liquidation when it all goes tits up, and churn out their electric motors under that brand.... that's a future I can see.

 

[ausername]

Or perhaps Tesla should outsource all production to General Motors or similar, white label them as Tesla and focus on the marketing... that would work.

At some point they need to stop losing $480,000 an hour... they currently have no competition at their end of the market. Competition is coming. That's the crux of the matter.

Elon Musk is charismatic and full of ideas, but he's worth $16.5bn having never built any business which has turned a profit. He's built some cool brands, that's different from building a successful business.

And don't compare it with Amazon who took 10 years to turn a profit, this is completely different because Amazon had sufficient revenue to largely self-fund infrastructure investment. Tesla has relied on constant hand outs and Elon Musk talking up their share price. He's beginning to look like a snake oil salesman. Tesla is not a business for any value investor, its hugely over valued.

 

[dee]

Some serious reductions for anyone looking to buy at the mo.

If anyone is getting out and fancies making an offer for a london geo site (battersea) in bitcoin or eth. Let me know

 

[scottmccloud]

This video basically sums up Bitcoin.

I especially like the description of it as the veganism of the financial world and the way it points out the amount of passive aggressive bitcoin shaming that takes place online by people with a 'strong history of no track record in wealth accumulation'.

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[dee]

This video basically sums up Bitcoin.

I especially like the description of it as the veganism of the financial world and the way it points out the amount of passive aggressive bitcoin shaming that takes place online by people with a 'strong history of no track record in wealth accumulation'.

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ha ha.... thats brilliant

 

[ausername]

Some serious reductions for anyone looking to buy at the mo.

If anyone is getting out and fancies making an offer for a london geo site (battersea) in bitcoin or eth. Let me know

Well chart readers without a vested interest would argue that its not cheap until its at $3500.

Based on the fact that the last time Bitcoin had a major crash / crisis it went from from $1200 to $200.

The equivalent would be $20,000 to $3,333.

Although I'm not buying at $3,333 either.... I don't understand the point in Bitcoin and neither does most of the planet.

 

[topcat]

I wonder how much of an effect Facebook banning crypto adverts had. It must have impacted the inflow of new money.

 

[ian]

I wouldn't say much, I suspect it is just targeted FUD across the world to try and rid it of crypto, that has started a major sell off through panic.

 

[Skinner]

I've had a few offers recently, nearly took an offer in ETH for bomb.co.uk, the guy told me he bought his ETH at 30 U$D, so he was offering 50% over my cash BIN because it was still only a few hundred dollars in his mind.

It made me wonder, how do you see your coins ? if you bought at 50 and now they are 500, do you see it as spending 50 or 500 ? Same in reverse, if you paid 19,000 now they are 10,000, how do you reconcile it ?

Some serious reductions for anyone looking to buy at the mo.

If anyone is getting out and fancies making an offer for a london geo site (battersea) in bitcoin or eth. Let me know

 

[Edwin]

A major percentage of the money that had been flowing into BTC over the recent spike was likely from Japanese housewives. Seriously. The Japanese have some of the highest savings rates in the world, but bank deposit rates are beyond pitiful (think 0.1% for a multi-year fixed rate savings account)

So housewives (who traditionally have made most of the investment decisions for the family) have poured money into Bitcoin (just as they did years ago into Australian and NZ bonds with double-digit interest rates, only to get slaughtered on FX movements.)

That sort of money is unlikely to return any time soon since they’ve effectively watched their investment halve in value from the peak of the market. They don’t have the staying power to wait out that sort of “shock”.

Altogether, the pool of money Japanese savers command is staggeringly large...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...cks-make-japanese-households-richer-than-ever

 

[dee]

It made me wonder, how do you see your coins ? if you bought at 50 and now they are 500, do you see it as spending 50 or 500 ? Same in reverse, if you paid 19,000 now they are 10,000, how do you reconcile it ?

For me personally i see it as market value. I can see for people who have loads of bitcoin it may seem a bit surreal.

Would be a good idea for a site. Asset to coin / coin to asset swaps

 

[Murray]

What do you guys make of this logic

"Market is all about moving money from impatient to the patient. You see crash, I see opportunity.

You - OMG Bitcoin is crashing, I gotta sell!

Me - OMG Bitcoin is criminally undervalued, I gotta buy!

N.B. Word to the wise for new investors. What I've learned over 7 years is that whenever it crashes spectacularly, the bounce is twice as impactful and record-setting. I can't predict the bottom but I can assure you that it WILL hit 19k and go further beyond, as hard as it may be for a lot of folks to believe right at this moment if you haven't been through it before."

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7uqa54/lesson_history_of_bitcoin_crashes/

 

[martin-s]

The most profitable investors are contrarian. Buy value when everyone else is panic selling. Take profits when everyone else is crowing about neverending price increases.

 

[websaway]

The most profitable investors are contrarian. Buy value when everyone else is panic selling. Take profits when everyone else is crowing about neverending price increases.

Yes

 

[websaway]

What do you guys make of this logic

"Market is all about moving money from impatient to the patient. You see crash, I see opportunity.

You - OMG Bitcoin is crashing, I gotta sell!

Me - OMG Bitcoin is criminally undervalued, I gotta buy!

N.B. Word to the wise for new investors. What I've learned over 7 years is that whenever it crashes spectacularly, the bounce is twice as impactful and record-setting. I can't predict the bottom but I can assure you that it WILL hit 19k and go further beyond, as hard as it may be for a lot of folks to believe right at this moment if you haven't been through it before."

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7uqa54/lesson_history_of_bitcoin_crashes/

And how do you gauge the value of fresh air. The greatest confidence trick in the history of the modern world.

 

[ausername]

What do you guys make of this logic

"Market is all about moving money from impatient to the patient. You see crash, I see opportunity.

You - OMG Bitcoin is crashing, I gotta sell!

Me - OMG Bitcoin is criminally undervalued, I gotta buy!

N.B. Word to the wise for new investors. What I've learned over 7 years is that whenever it crashes spectacularly, the bounce is twice as impactful and record-setting. I can't predict the bottom but I can assure you that it WILL hit 19k and go further beyond, as hard as it may be for a lot of folks to believe right at this moment if you haven't been through it before."

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7uqa54/lesson_history_of_bitcoin_crashes/

In fairness there are massively overvalued stocks which have been overhyped too, although apparently people don't like it when you mention those either *cough cough*... *tesla*.

Facebook ad ban has given me a reason to want Bitcoin to do well for a while.... I'm an adsense publisher, so a bit more money is going to be pumped into adwords isn't it...

Bitcoin to the moon!