That concerns me too, George, but with the transferable vote system, if you vote for all three... then one of the three may get knocked out before a non-PB candidate, but at that point all the votes for the knocked out person get transferred.
Where I'm unclear on the process (Curon can probably clarify this)...
If Simon Blackler (as I expect) gets a massive number of first-choice votes, when he passes a cut-off point to election, if people have voted him first-choice, then do some of his 'extra' first-place votes get passed on to a person's second choice?
If that is the case, then I think you might still get 2 PB candidates elected... because both Ashley and Jim would then get a large share of transferred votes from Simon's excess, and you're down to the last 4 standing.
Even if Mr non-PB is at that point in 2nd place, when the weakest PB person gets knocked out and we're down to 3 candidates standing, then wouldn't ALL the PB supporting votes get transferred from PB3 to PB2, which might be enough to raise them up to 2nd place and a place on the Board.
What I personally think will happen is that Simon's large mailing list will almost certainly (and understandably) be activated and mobilised so far more people vote than in previous NED elections. Since Simon backed/seconded both Ashley and Jim, that very large number from the mailing list may well choose to vote for the 3 'endorsed' candidates.
We saw that happen in the UKRAC election. Simon endorsed 6 of us, and all 6 of us won by landslides in a far higher turnout (over 400 members) than you get at NED elections.
Of course, as last year, the large DUM of the big members means (even with the cap) that a favourite of the big companies will amass plenty of votes, like Kelly did. But even before the whole EGM crisis, Kelly's support wasn't enough to stop her getting knocked out in 3rd place, while Phil and I gained the 1st and 2nd places.
If that was the case in a non-crisis year, I think it will be even harder... in fact, much harder... for a non-PB favourite of the big companies to amass sufficient votes to stem the 'Blackler tide'.
The one problem, if I've misunderstood the system, is that if Simon's votes beyond the cut-off point for election don't get redistributed/transferred and he just keeps all his first-choice votes, then that could be very bad for Jim and Ashley, as many of the same people who approve of Jim and Ashley will nevertheless have voted for Simon as number 1 choice. That way Simon could get the landslide and take the PB votes so Jim and Ashley miss out.
But I don't think it works that way.
I think once Simon has enough votes to guarantee he's won, all the 2nd choices on ballots below Simon get passed on. I hope that's right.