This is what I wrote after Frank Shilling posted about how good these things will be....... It revolves about these things going bust shortly after launch. I wrote it about 6 months ago on the that.co.uk blog but took it down when the site changed aims.
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Just seen an article online from Frank Schilling and have decided to file it under "Nonsense". I won't link to it because it is so off the chart I can only think that it is some sort of link bait. It relates to the launching of new extensions with .anything after the domain name. How they will grow and rival the .com.
More comedy, sounds like certain domainers are trying to sell new domains before they are even out, "bring in the next sucker I want to sell them something". These people should be ashamed of themselves and milking more and more money out of suckers on garbage extensions by creating a here today gone tomorrow bubble. We have seen it many times with .co's, .tel's, .mobi's. These domainers create a bubble, suck in the idiots and then on to the next bubble. Sounds like what is going on here already.
You can't blame the media on the fate of these .anything, most of them are not clued up enough to know any different. But these guys are in the industry and that's what makes it worse.
There will be very very few .brands that don't have their .com's as a safety net. Maybe some will run and advertise on their .brand but they will do so knowing that they have the back up of not sending their customers to the .com owner of their .brand
I can't wait to see the first advertising campaign running a .brand when they don't have the .com as back up. The leakage is going to be immense and the .com owner will be laughing all the way to the bank.
He hasn't factored into this the one big effing elephant in the room... The maths don't add up to maintain .anything and one will go bust within two years bringing the whole show crashing to the ground.
The cost is £130k to ICANN tostart with in application fees, £15k a year in fees to ICANN to maintain the show. That is before staff and computers are brought into effect, servers, etc.
So lets say a company had .loans which could be one of the best of the lot... How many words can you stick infront of .loan to make a commercially useful name? 1000 tops and that is being generous. So if they wanted to sell domains that ended in .loans to businesses, we can do a couple of sums to work out what is going on.
So a customer would pay on average and lets be really generous here, £1k on average per name in some sort of landrush phase. That is £1m pound of quick cash they just got in. Happy days for that registry owner, they are currently £850k ahead. Now what? they have to make back £15k per year in fees just to pay ICANN their subscriptions. That is £15 per domain name per year across the 1000 domains. Now you have to factor in staff, support, infrastructure. That is before we even get near profits...
They'd have to charge £300 per domain per year to just about break even. £500 per domain to make a meagre profit.
They have £850k in the bank upfront, one suggest that they ain't going to be hanging around trying to run the thing for a few quid a year and a load of hassle. Next stop, registry goes into admin and bankruptcy. Some may be correct in saying that they need to pay three years fees of 15k upfront as a deposit. But it is a rolliong 15k, so the owner of the registry still needs to pay 15k to ICANN every year for fees to maintain the 3 year deposit. What can ICANN do with the at most 3 years worrth of fees (45k) to save and run the registry?
So the registry goes offline, nobody is going to take over the extension because there is no landrush cash to be had now (unless they cancel names off domain owners on .loans and charge them more to keep what they already had. So those with websites on .loans are now on in a world of pain. Some may have spent many thousands on branding.
These figures would be on one of the best .anything's. Now imagine some of the worst ones and how quickly their lights go out after launch. We are going to see .anything going to ICANN to be bailed out in the same way that we see Greece going to the EU.
Get ready for an online equivalent of .Greece, .Spain . Cyprus and innocent people having their websites being removed from the network because they are no longer commercially viable to run that .ext