Coding behind the 'models'

[BREWSTERS]

I know nothing about coding personally but expect quite a lot of you do. But you don't need to, to understand this;

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

This article discusses the coding behind the computer models that the gov used to justify lock-up. In fact Imperial College seem to have been so embarrassed by it that instead of releasing it earlier, they've had a team of experts from Microsoft (why is that not a suprise!) and others working for a month to try and smarten it up.

I've heard it described elsewhere as 'hobbyist level coding'.

Thousands of deaths - tens of thousands of businesses closed - countries forced into massive debt. On the back of this, unscientific rubbish. And BJ still has the gall to say with a straight face "we will be guided by the science".

Now he and his advisors (well, maybe he is) are not stupid people...they must have known the figures produced were unreliable (I'm being kind there) especially when they came from someone with an almost unblemished record, of being wrong. Which must make you ask yourself, 'why'?

 

[Trauiner]

A website called 'lockdownsceptics.org', a blog post written by someone who wants to remain anonymous because of a 'deeper reason' which they do not explain.

Don't get me wrong, what they're saying may be true as I haven't dug into the post yet but from the outset, the website/blog post makes itself sound like a conspiracy theory before they've even begun.

 

[JMI]

https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model

hmm..

 

[Greg]

by Sue Denim (not the author’s real name)

Clearly, Imperial are too embarrassed by the state of it ever to release it of their own free will

I stopped reading here.

 

[BREWSTERS]

I stopped reading here.

Probably best...you wouldn't have liked it.

If you had read to the bottom, you've have seen this regarding the author's identity;

My identity. Sue Denim isn’t a real person (read it out). I’ve chosen to remain anonymous partly because of the intense fighting that surrounds lockdown, but there’s also a deeper reason. This situation has come about due to rampant credentialism and I’m tired of it. As the widespread dismay by programmers demonstrates, if anyone in SAGE or the Government had shown the code to a working software engineer they happened to know, alarm bells would have been rung immediately. Instead, the Government is dominated by academics who apparently felt unable to question anything done by a fellow professor. Meanwhile, average citizens like myself are told we should never question “expertise”. Although I’ve proven my Google employment to Toby, this mentality is damaging and needs to end: please, evaluate the claims I’ve made for yourself, or ask a programmer you know and trust to evaluate them for you.

On top of which, no-one wants to become the next Dr David Kelly.

 

[Greg]

Probably best...you wouldn't have liked it.

Get out and enjoy some of that unlimited exercise time, Brewsters

 

[Trauiner]

Probably best...you wouldn't have liked it.

If you had read to the bottom, you've have seen this regarding the author's identity;

My identity. Sue Denim isn’t a real person (read it out). I’ve chosen to remain anonymous partly because of the intense fighting that surrounds lockdown, but there’s also a deeper reason. This situation has come about due to rampant credentialism and I’m tired of it. As the widespread dismay by programmers demonstrates, if anyone in SAGE or the Government had shown the code to a working software engineer they happened to know, alarm bells would have been rung immediately. Instead, the Government is dominated by academics who apparently felt unable to question anything done by a fellow professor. Meanwhile, average citizens like myself are told we should never question “expertise”. Although I’ve proven my Google employment to Toby, this mentality is damaging and needs to end: please, evaluate the claims I’ve made for yourself, or ask a programmer you know and trust to evaluate them for you.

On top of which, no-one wants to become the next Dr David Kelly.

More like they don't want to reveal their identity because they're too embarrassed to be proved wrong and made to look professionally stupid on things they've said.

Could be an argument that they don't want to lose their job, which I can understand... but to me that's dishonourable on something as serious as this. If they truly believe what they're saying, they shouldn't care about losing their job to protect their fellow human beings and country.

From reading the blog post though, it does appear the writer is jumping to conclusions in a lot of places and that does make me worry they're doing the whole 'this aligns with my theory so I'll take that on-board as evidence but I'll ignore anything that disagrees with me' thing.

 

[Trauiner]

Perhaps they're a government whistleblower? It's ok to remain anonymous. It doesn't change much, the proof is in the pudding - as they say.

I guess. Although they state they work for Google.

 

[diablo]

Related piece from Harvard Business Review.

Which data can you trust?

https://hbr.org/2020/05/which-covid-19-data-can-you-trust

 

[BREWSTERS]

Again...as the author says - "evaluate the claims I’ve made for yourself, or ask a programmer you know and trust to evaluate them for you."

My reason for the post is because I'm sure some of you do have the required knowledge to be able to evaluate it.

Given that Ferguson has a woeful record in making predictions through his modelling, I'm inclined to think that the systems he employs are not very good. Results speak for themselves. And let's face it...he doesn't even believe them himself given what he's been upto.

 

[Trauiner]

Again...as the author says - "evaluate the claims I’ve made for yourself, or ask a programmer you know and trust to evaluate them for you."

My reason for the post is because I'm sure some of you do have the required knowledge to be able to evaluate it.

Given that Ferguson has a woeful record in making predictions through his modelling, I'm inclined to think that the systems he employs are not very good. Results speak for themselves. And let's face it...he doesn't even believe them himself given what he's been upto.

From what I've seen by digging on this point about Ferguson, it seems his predictions are often misquoted/taken out of context to fit a certain narrative.

People need to start digging into the source of the information rather than blinding following their conspiracy theorist friends and blogs for information.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Maybe you'd like to list some of his successes then? Or check the coding for yourself and point out where the author is wrong?

And I suppose he kept 2m away from his girlfriend when she visited aswell eh?

 

[Trauiner]

You're the one calling out his woeful predictions, not me. You list all his bad predictions and we can break them down on if you've followed a conspiracy theory or if you've digged into what he actually said.

It's important you understand what predictions for this sort of thing are, regardless. They're not supposed to be fact. They sometimes will be vastly off. They're only supposed to give you something to go on, in a time where you have no idea of what could happen.

When you make predictions of the unknown, you are statistically going to be wrong some of the time regardless. The idea of the predictions is to give you an idea of 'what if'.

 

[bonusmedia]

Great work Brewsters, that's Toby Young's site. Toby Young the far-right eugenicist.

I tell you what mate, they didn't win last time and they're not going to win this time. I can't even really blame you, you're just a useful idiot, they know what buttons to push and they've pushed yours good and proper.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Great work Brewsters, that's Toby Young's site. Toby Young the far-right eugenicist.

I tell you what mate, they didn't win last time and they're not going to win this time. I can't even really blame you, you're just a useful idiot, they know what buttons to push and they've pushed yours good and proper.

At least I'm a useful one!

 

[bonusmedia]

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=useful+idiot

How's the logistics industry looking, all ready for no deal?

 

[BREWSTERS]

You're the one calling out his woeful predictions, not me. You list all his bad predictions and we can break them down on if you've followed a conspiracy theory or if you've digged into what he actually said.

I asked first...

Maybe Ferguson has a fan club you could join, they might be able to help you with it.

-------------

This is turning into another one of those threads where some people totally disregard information because they don't like the paper it's written on. Might as well close it now, but I'll leave you with this -

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

- possibly the worlds first politically discriminating virus!

 

[bonusmedia]

Ah so the source doesn't matter, and cui bono doesn't apply to any random bullshit you find online.
The last video you posted was lying about a dead child and quite upsetting, so I don't think I'll bother.

Have you lost anyone yet? We lost a relative today. To be honest I barely knew himm but still, brings it home to you.
And my sister's cat's kidneys have given up, which she could really do without at the moment.

Forgive me if my patience for fucking stupid cunts is wearing thin.

 

[BREWSTERS]

Ah so the source doesn't matter, and cui bono doesn't apply to any random bullshit you find online.
The last video you posted was lying about a dead child and quite upsetting, so I don't think I'll bother.

Have you lost anyone yet? We lost a relative today. To be honest I barely knew himm but still, brings it home to you.
And my sister's cat's kidneys have given up, which she could really do without at the moment.

Forgive me if my patience for fucking stupid cunts is wearing thin.

I'll just quote this for posterity.

 

[bonusmedia]

Feel free, you stupid fucking cunt.